Saturday, December 09, 2006

UTOR (SENIANG) endangers Tacloban-Cadiz-Sagay-Roxas-Boracay... [Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TROPICAL STORM UTOR [SENIANG/25W/0622] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 09 DECEMBER 2006
Next Update: 1:00 PM (05:00 GMT) SAT 09 DECEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #008
_______________________________________________________________________
  
TROPICAL STORM UTOR (SENIANG) APPROACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH
AS IT INCHES CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN SAMAR...TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR GUIUAN, EASTERN SAMAR BEFORE NOON TODAY.

...All interests in the Bicol Region (particularly the towns
surrounding Mayon Volcano), Eastern & Central Visayas should
closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm UTOR.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: UTOR is expected to turn WNW slightly
for the next 24 hours and make landfall over Eastern Samar
or just between the towns of Borongan and Guiuan before
noontime today and is likely to reach minimal typhoon strength.
The forming eye is expected to pass some 20 km. North of Tac-
loban City or over SW Samar around 1 PM today and shall be in
the vicinity of Biliran Island around 2 PM. UTOR shall pass
over the Southern Coast of Masbate around 7-8 PM tonight pa-
ssing about 55 km. South of Masbate, Masbate or about 145 km
south of Legazpi City. The eye's closest approach to Naga
City shall be about 190 km. away (to the SSW). The storm
shall pass across Jintolo Channel or just to the northern
coast of Panay or about 35 km North of Roxas City before mid-
night and move just to the South of Tablas Island, Romblon
early tomorrow morning passing very close to Boracay Island
Resort (approx 20 km to the north) around 2 AM tomorrow, Dec
10. UTOR is forecast to pass over San Jose, Mindoro around 8
AM tomorrow, Dec 10 before moving just to the North of Coron,
Palawan tomorrow afternoon. The 3 to 5-day long range forecast
(Dec 12 to 14) shows UTOR intensifying further over the South
China Sea with projected winds of 150-km/hr as it approaches
the Coast of Vietnam early Thursday morning. 

+ EFFECTS: UTOR's inner bands now affecting the Islands of
Samar and Leyte with its core (eye + eyewall) just along the
Eastern Coast of Samar. Typhoon conditions with moderate to
heavy rains can be expected today along Eastern Visayas as
the core of UTOR approaches. Meanwhile, its Outer Bands
continues to spread across Northern Mindanao, Central Visayas
and the whole Bicol Region. 30 to 50 km/hr winds and rains
can be expected along areas affected by the outer bands
today. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in
Albay especially along areas where possible LAHAR FLOWS
(mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located - must
evacuate within 24 hours as heavy rains associated by
these intensifying storm is likely to reach the area
tomorrow morning.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 09 DECEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 11.2º N...LONGITUDE 127.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 240 KM (130 NM) EAST OF TACLOBAN CITY
DISTANCE 2: 200 KM (109 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, E. SAMAR
DISTANCE 3: 405 KM (220 NM) ESE OF MASBATE, MASBATE
DISTANCE 4: 440 KM (238 NM) SE OF LEGAZPI CITY
DISTANCE 5: 510 KM (275 NM) SE OF NAGA CITY
DISTANCE 6: 375 KM (202 NM) ENE OF CEBU CITY
DISTANCE 7: 585 KM (315 NM) ESE OF BORACAY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 110 KM/HR (60 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 980 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SAMAR-LEYTE AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 535 KM (290 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 AM PST SAT DECEMBER 09
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - SAMAR & LEYTE PROVINCES INCLUDING BILIRAN ISLAND.
#02 - SORSOGON, MASBATE, ROMBLON, AKLAN, CAPIZ, NORTHERN 
      ILOILO, NORTHERN ANTIQUE, NORTHERN NEGROS, NORTHERN 
      CEBU, SOUTHERN LEYTE, DINAGAT ISLAND & SIARGAO ISLAND.
#01 - CATANDUANES, ALBAY, SOUTHERN MINDORO, BURIAS ISLAND, 
      REST OF ILOILO, REST OF ANTIQUE, GUIMARAS, CUYO ISLAND, 
      REST OF NEGROS, REST OF CEBU, BOHOL, SIQUIJOR, SURIGAO 
      DEL NORTE & CAMIGUIN ISLAND.   
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 09 DEC: 11.6N 124.7E / 120-150 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 10 DEC: 12.1N 122.0E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 11 DEC: 13.1N 118.0E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 09 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 09 DECEMBER POSITION: 11.1N 127.3E.
^Recent animated infrared satellite imagery indicates increased
deep convection over the low-level circulation center (LLCC)
within the past 06 hours. A microwave pass shows a well-defined
band of convection wrapping from the northern flank of the
storm into the LLCC. TS UTOR continues to track along the sou-
thern periphery of a strong mid-level subtropical ridge (str)
to its north. The current westward track will become more
northwesterly after 48 hourse as TS UTOR reaches the southwes-
tern periphery of the str...(more info)

>> UTOR {pronounced: oo-TORE}, meaning: Marshallese word 
   for "squall line". Name contributed by: U.S.A.
_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 09 DECEMBER: 10.9N 127.4E / W @ 22 KPH / 110 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________


RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS UTOR (SENIANG)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
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Posted by MJ Klein at 11:17

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