Sunday, December 17, 2006

New TD 26W heads for RP...[Update #001]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W [UNNAMED] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 17 DECEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) MON 18 DECEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #002
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (UNNAMED) HEADS
FOR PHILIPPINES...MAY THREATEN THE ISLAND OF LUZON
WITHIN THREE DAYS...SHALL ENTER THE PHILIPPINE
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) TOMORROW.


...All interests in the Luzon and Eastern Visayas
should closely monitor the progress of Tropical 
Depression 26W.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 26W is expected to resume its fast,
WNW track with decreasing speed as it nears PAR and
intensify into a Storm. Since this is a small system,
some computer forecast models are blind in forecasting
this. The 2 to 3-day medium-range forecast shows it
turning due west, reaching Category 1 Typhoon by Wednes-
day Afternoon (Dec 20), sparing the Bicol Region on a
direct hit but a danger to Central and Northern Luzon.
Aside from the above forecast there are 2 scenarios that
can happen. Scenario 1 shows it moving West into Bicol-
Samar Area around Wednesday (Dec 20). Scenario 2 shall
move this cyclone NW into the weak part of the High
Pressure Steering Ridge and be absorbed by a passing
Cold Front (which is now moving off Japan) next week.
As of this time, these scenarios are still possible, how-
ever due to its sudden Northwesterly, the Central Luzon
landfall is most like. Please be aware that these fore-
casts changes every 6 hours. So, kindly watch out for
our succeeding advisories
. 

+ EFFECTS: This system is not yet affecting any Pacific
Islands.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: A surge of moderate to strong
Northeast Monsoon currently moving across Luzon bring clou-
dy skies with occasional rainshowers and winds of 30-60
km/hr winds becoming more frequent across Batanes, North-
eastern Luzon, Quezon, Bicol Region & Northern Samar.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 17 DECEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 12.5º N...LONGITUDE 139.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 350 KM (190 NM) NNE OF COLONIA, YAP IS., FSM
DISTANCE 2: 445 KM (240 NM) EAST OF PAR
DISTANCE 3: 1,575 KM (850 NM) EAST OF CATARMAN, N.SAMAR
DISTANCE 4: 1,605 KM (865 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 5: 1,670 KM (900 NM) ESE OF LEGAZPI CITY
DISTANCE 6: 1,725 KM (930 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 37 KM/HR (20 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: LUZON, PHILIPPINES
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 250 KM (135 NM)/SMALL
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 PM PST SUN DECEMBER 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 18 DEC: 13.3N 136.5E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 28 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 18 DEC: 14.1N 133.6E / 85-100 KPH / W @ 26 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 DEC: 15.0N 128.1E / 120-150 KPH / W @ 22 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 17 DECEMBER POSITION: 12.0N 139.7E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER WITH
WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
A AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATES THAT OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS WEA-
KENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVING
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLATITUDE FLOW..
.(more info)

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________


RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 26W (UNNAMED)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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