Friday, December 08, 2006

TD 25W (SENIANG) - Update #001


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W [SENIANG] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 07 DECEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) FRI 08 DECEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #002

To all subscribers: I would like to thank you so much for all
your touching emails and of course your continued support on 
my typhoon information service. God bless! ~ Michael Padua
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (SENIANG) NEWLY-FORMED NEAR PALAU
ISLAND...ENTERS THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
(PAR)...THREATENS SAMAR-LEYTE AREA

...All interests in the Samar, Surigao & Bicol Provinces 
particularly along the slopes of Mayon Volcano should
closely monitor the progress of this potential storm.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 25W is expected to turn more West-
ward for the next 2 to 3 days and shall cross Eastern
& Central Visayas, making landfall over Northern Leyte
or in the vicinity of Ormoc City Saturday afternoon,
Dec 9 as a 150-km/hr Typhoon and pass over the northern
tip of Cebu, the coastal areas of Northern Negros in
the evening (Dec 9). The center is forecast to cross
Central Panay early morning Sunday (Dec 10). Take note
that the long range forecast are bound for large margin
of errors


+ EFFECTS: The circulation of 25W continues to affect
the small islands of Palau, Yap and Ulithi. Moderate
to heavy rains with moderate winds will continue to
prevail over the area today.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 07 DECEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 9.7º N...LONGITUDE 134.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,010 KM (545 NM) EAST OF SURIGAO CITY
DISTANCE 2: 1,255 KM (678 NM) ESE OF LEGAZPI CITY
DISTANCE 3: 1,325 KM (715 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
DISTANCE 4: 1,075 KM (580 NM) ESE OF TACLOBAN CITY
DISTANCE 5: 1,185 KM (640 NM) ESE OF CEBU CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN SAMAR-NORTHERN LEYTE AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): ... KM (... NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 PM PST THU DECEMBER 07
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: None
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 08 DEC: 10.0N 132.6E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 08 DEC: 10.5N 130.0E / 95-120 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 09 DEC: 11.0N 124.E7 / 150-185 KPH / W @ 20 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 07 DECEMBER POSITION: 9.6N 135.4E.
^Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates that con-
vection is slowly organizing in the vicinity of the low-
level circulation center. An SSMI/S pass indicates weak
banding on the northeastern and southwestern quadrants
of the disturbance. TD 25W continues to track westward
on the southern periphery of a strong mid-level subtro-
pical ridge (str) extending from Guam through the Luzon
straight. Due to the high zonal midlatitude pattern, no
modifications to the steering ridge are forecast through 
72 hours, and thus TD 25W will continue on its westward
track..
.(more info)

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 07 DECEMBER: 10.0N 135.9E / W @ 19 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________


RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 25W (SENIANG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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