Friday, December 08, 2006

TS UTOR (SENIANG) threatens Bicol anew...[Update #002]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TROPICAL STORM UTOR [SENIANG/25W/0622] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 08 DECEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) FRI 08 DECEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #004
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
25W (SENIANG) HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND
NOW INTERNATIONALLY NAMED AS
UTOR...HEADING TOWARDS
SAMAR-MASBATE AREA...PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES MUST BE
IMPLEMENTED ON THE APPROACH OF THIS NEW STORM.


...All interests in the Samar, Surigao & Bicol Provinces 
particularly along the slopes of Mayon Volcano should
closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm UTOR.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: UTOR is expected to continue moving
WNW for the next 24 to 48 hours and shall make landfall
over Eastern Samar or in the vicinity of Borongan Saturday
night, Dec 9 around 8 PM - reaching Typhoon strength w/
peak winds of 140-km/hr. It shall continue crossing Samar
Island passing very close to Catbalogan & Calbayog Cities
early Sunday morning (Dec 10) or in the vicinity of Samar
Sea. UTOR shall cross Masbate Island passing very close
to Masbate, Masbate or about 120 km South of Legazpi City
or 190 km SSE of Naga City around 6 to 7 AM Sunday morning
(Dec 10). The 3 to 5-day long range forecast (Dec 11 to 13)
shows UTOR passing over the Island of Calamian Group of
Islands early morning Monday (Dec 11) and moving out into
the South China Sea towards Vietnam Dec 12 and 13


+ EFFECTS: UTOR's radial circulation remains along the Phi-
lippines with its Outer Bands expected to reach Eastern Vi-
sayas late tonight or early tomorrow morning.
People living
around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay especially along
the area where possible LAHAR FLOWS (mixture of volcanic
mud and water) are located - must evacuate within 24 hours
as heavy rains associated by these intensifying storm is
likely to reach the area tomorrow afternoon.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 08 DECEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 10.1º N...LONGITUDE 133.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 855 KM (460 NM) ENE OF SURIGAO CITY
DISTANCE 2: 880 KM (475 NM) ESE OF BORONGAN, E. SAMAR
DISTANCE 3: 915 KM (495 NM) ESE OF TACLOBAN CITY
DISTANCE 4: 1,100 KM (595 NM) ESE OF LEGAZPI CITY
DISTANCE 5: 1,165 KM (620 NM) ESE OF NAGA CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 997 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SAMAR-MASBATE AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 AM PST FRI DECEMBER 08
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01
- SAMAR, LEYTE, SURIGAO DEL NORTE, DINAGAT & SIARGAO 
      ISLANDS.
   

           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 08 DEC: 10.5N 131.8E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 09 DEC: 11.1N 129.2E / 100-130 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 10 DEC: 11.9N 124.5E / 120-150 KPH / W @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 08 DECEMBER POSITION: 10.0N 133.8E.
^Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates that con-
vection is slowly organizing in the vicinity of the low-
level circulation center. An SSMI/S pass indicates weak
banding on the northeastern and southwestern quadrants
of the disturbance. TD 25W continues to track westward
on the southern periphery of a strong mid-level subtro-
pical ridge (str) extending from Guam through the Luzon
straight. Due to the high zonal midlatitude pattern, no
modifications to the steering ridge are forecast through 
72 hours, and thus TD 25W will continue on its westward
track..
.(more info)

>> UTOR {pronounced: oo-TORE}, meaning: Marshallese word 
   for "squall line". Name contributed by: U.S.A.

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 08 DECEMBER: 10.1N 133.3E / W @ 19 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________


RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS UTOR (SENIANG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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