Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) Update #010

for Thursday, 31 October 2013 [7:11 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KROSA (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 010
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thursday 31 October 2013
Next Update: 12:00 MN PhT (16:00 GMT) Friday 01 November 2013

The eye of Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) is now making landfall over Northern Cagayan. Its strong eyewall is bringing typhoon force winds across much of Cagayan.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TY Krosa (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of TY Krosa (Vinta) was located off the coast of Northeastern Cagayan...about 30 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 100 km northeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 15 km/hr towards Northern Cagayan-Ilocos Norte Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 160 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers. TY Krosa (Vinta) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Krosa (Vinta) is expected to move west-northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TY Krosa (Vinta) will make landfall over the northeastern coast of Cagayan early this evening (between 5-7 PM)...and will cross Extreme Northern Luzon thru Northern Cagayan, Northern Apayao and Ilocos Norte this evening through early Friday morning. Krosa (Vinta) will emerge over the west coast of Ilocos Norte before daybreak Friday. On Friday late afternoon, the typhoon will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...and will be over the South China Sea by Saturday afternoon, as it moves towards Hainan Island.

TY Krosa (Vinta) will slightly weaken through the next 12 hours while traversing Northern Luzon. It will reintensify to a Category 2 Typhoon (TY) over the South China Sea through 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to a peak of 160 km/hr on Saturday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly after crossing Extreme Northern Luzon...exits PAR...about 200 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM NOV 01: 18.8N 118.8E @ 150kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Reintensifies to Category 2 as it moves across the West Philippine and South China Seas...already out of the PAR...about 315 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM NOV 02: 19.5N 114.6E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly as it approaches the eastern coast of Hainan Island...turns more westerly...about 75 km east-northeast of Qionghai, Hainan [2PM NOV 03: 19.4N 111.2E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

43-KM RAGGED EYE - over Northern Cagayan. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Northern Cagayan (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Apayao, Kalinga, Isabela, Mt. Province, Ilocos Norte, Abra and NW part of the Central Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Aurora, rest of Northern Luzon and NW part of the Central Philippine Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Krosa (Vinta).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Cagayan and Ilocos Provinces tonight and tomorrow. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 31, 2013
Class/Name: TY Krosa (Vinta)
Location of Eye: Near 18.3º N Lat 122.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 30 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 85 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 100 km NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 145 km SE of Calayan Island
Distance 5: 190 km ENE of Laoag City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph
Towards: Northern Cagayan-Ilocos Norte Area
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY KROSA (VINTA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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