Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 29W (VINTA) Update #002

for Tuesday, 29 October 2013 [12:09 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued at: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Tuesday 29 October 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tuesday 29 October 2013

Tropical Depression 29W (VINTA) has strengthened slightly as it entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), while moving quickly across the Philippine Sea. The threat to Northern and Central Luzon remains.

This depression will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing sunny to cloudy conditions w/ passing slight to moderate rains and gusty winds along the eastern sections of Luzon including Bicol Region and Northern Visayas beginning today through Thursday.

Residents and visitors along Luzon and Northern Visayas should closely monitor the development of TD 29W (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11:00 am today, the center of TD 29W (Vinta) was located over the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 1,040 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 1,245 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 28 km/hr towards Northern Luzon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 55 km/hr near the center with higher gusts.

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD 29W (Vinta) is expected to maintain a generally west-northward movement throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TD 29W (Vinta) will move across the Central Philippine Sea by Wednesday morning...and will be just along the eastern coast of Isabela and Northern Aurora by Thursday morning.

TD 29W (Vinta) will continue to gain strength through the next 48 hours...and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to Typhoon intensity of 120 km/hr on Thursday morning.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a TS as it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central part of the Philippine Sea...about 780 km east of Casiguran, Aurora [8AM OCT 30: 16.1N 129.4E @ 85kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon (Category 1) as it bears down the coast of Isabela and Northern Aurora...about 120 km east of Palanan, Isabela [8AM OCT 31: 16.9N 123.5E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Northern Luzon...intensifies slightly...about 170 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM NOV 01: 17.4N 118.8E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue Oct 29, 2013
Class/Name: TD 29W (Vinta)
Location of Center: Near 15.3º N Lat 133.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 1040 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1220 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 1245 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1355 km ENE of Metro Manila
Present Movement: WNW @ 28 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 29W (VINTA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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