Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS FITOW (QUEDAN) Update #003

for Wednesday, 02 October 2013 [9:33 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM FITOW (QUEDAN) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Wednesday 02 October 2013

Tropical Storm FITOW (QUEDAN) has gained more strength as it continues to move generally northward across the Philippine Sea. FITOW (Quedan) will not directly affect the country.

Residents and visitors along the southern islands of Japan should closely monitor the development of FITOW (Quedan).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Fitow (Quedan) was located over the Philippine Sea...about 800 km northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes or 935 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving northwest with forward speed of 15 km/hr towards Ryukyus.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 95 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers. Fitow (Quedan) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers across near the center. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Fitow (Quedan) is estimated to be extreme (325 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Fitow (Quedan) is expected to move north-northwest during the next 24 hours...with a little turn to the north thru 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Fitow (Quedan) will be moving across the eastern portion of the North Philippine Sea thru Friday.

TS Fitow (Quedan) will continue to gain strength during the next 24 hours...and could become a Typhoon (TY) on Thursday early morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 175 km/hr on Friday early morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it moves north-northwest across the southern part of North Philippine Sea...about 835 km east of Basco, Batanes [5AM OCT 03: 20.7N 130.0E @ 130kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 2 Typhoon as it veers a little to the north...about 385 km southeast of Okinawa, Okinawa [5AM OCT 04: 23.5N 129.7E @ 175kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a Category 3 Typhoon as it moves very close and to the east of Okinawa Island...about 135 km east-southeast of Okinawa, Okinawa [5AM OCT 05: 26.2N 129.1E @ 185kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northeastern part of Central Philippine Sea and southeastern portion of North Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northeastern part of Central Philippine Sea and southern portion of North Philippine Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 325 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Fitow (Quedan).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Oct 02, 2013
Class/Name: TS Fitow (Quedan)
Location of Center: Near 17.5º N Lat 130.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 800 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 935 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 1,100 km ENE of Metro Manila
Distance 4: 895 km E of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 5: 915 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph
Towards: Ryukyus
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [325 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 665 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS FITOW (QUEDAN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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