Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon FITOW (QUEDAN) Update #008

for Friday, 04 October 2013 [10:47 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON FITOW (QUEDAN) UPDATE NUMBER 008
Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday 04 October 2013

Typhoon FITOW (QUEDAN) has gained more strength while still over the warm waters of the North Philippine Sea. It has turned to the northwest and threatens further Okinawa and Miyakojima Islands. Fitow (Quedan) will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow late afternoon.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 23W (DANAS) formerly Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 97W - was located about 170 km NW of Saipan Island or 355 km N of Guam (16.6N Lat 145.0E Lon)...with maximum winds of 55 km/hr near the center...currently moving WNW at 19 kph in the vicinity of Northern Mariana Islands. Various forecast models suggest this system will enter the northeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Sunday afternoon.

Residents and visitors along the southern islands of Japan, Taiwan and Eastern China. should closely monitor the development of FITOW (Quedan).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of TY Fitow (Quedan) was located over the Philippine Sea...about 885 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 810 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 15 km/hr towards Okinawa-Miyakojima Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 160 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 380 kilometers. Fitow (Quedan) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Fitow (Quedan) is estimated to be extreme (510 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Fitow (Quedan) is expected to move northwest during the next 24 hours...then turns a little to the west-northwest thru 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Fitow (Quedan) will be over the East China Sea on Sunday afternoon.

TY Fitow (Quedan) will gain more strength during the next 24 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 165 km/hr by Saturday early morning thru afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies further as a Category 2 Typhoon...as it moves in the vicinity of Okinawa and Miyakojima Islands...about 125 km south of Naha, Okinawa [5PM OCT 05: 25.1 127.5E @ 165kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly...as it turns a little to the west-northwest towards Southeastern China...about 380 km east-southeast of Wenzhou, China [5PM OCT 06: 26.8N 124.2E @ 140kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Tropical Storm...as it makes landfall over the eastern coast of Zhejiang, China...about 45 km northeast of Wenzhou, China [5PM OCT 07: 28.3N 121.0E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

25-KM RAGGED EYE - Over the Central Part of North Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Central Part of North Philippine Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central North Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Philippine Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 510 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Fitow (Quedan).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa and Miyakojima Islands tomorrow late afternoon thru evening. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of nearby islands from Okinawa and Miyakojima. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Oct 04, 2013
Class/Name: TY Fitow (Quedan)
Location of Center: Near 22.9º N Lat 129.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 885 km NE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 810 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 540 km ESE of Ishigaki, Japan
Distance 4: 430 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 815 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph
Towards: Okinawa-Miyakojima Area
CPA [ETA] to Okinawa-Miyakojima Area: Saturday, between 4PM to 7PM
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [510 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY FITOW (QUEDAN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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