Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS FITOW (QUEDAN) Update #005

for Thursday, 03 October 2013 [9:33 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM FITOW (QUEDAN) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Thursday 03 October 2013

Tropical Storm FITOW (QUEDAN) has maintained its strength as it continues to move poleward slowly across the North Philippine Sea...still threatening Ryukyu Islands.

Residents and visitors along the southern islands of Japan and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of FITOW (Quedan).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Fitow (Quedan) was located over the Philippine Sea...about 790 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 810 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving north with a slow forward speed of 07 km/hr towards Okinawa-Miyakojima Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 110 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 195 kilometers from the center. Fitow (Quedan) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Fitow (Quedan) is estimated to be extreme (350 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Fitow (Quedan) is expected to move generally northward during the next 24 hours...and turns to the north-northwest thru 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Fitow (Quedan) will be moving across the northern portion of the North Philippine Sea thru Saturday.

TS Fitow (Quedan) will gain strength during the next 24 hours...and could become a Typhoon (TY) this afternoon. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 160 km/hr on Saturday early morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it moves north across the central part of North Philippine Sea...about 775 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [5AM OCT 04: 21.6N 129.3E @ 140kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 2 Typhoon as it turns to the north-northwest...about 330 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Okinawa [5AM OCT 05: 23.6N 128.5E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly after passing between Okinawa and Miyakojima Islands...about 250 km west of Okinawa, Okinawa [5AM OCT 06: 26.3N 125.3E @ 150kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - where Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (101-120 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). Possible "Eye" may also be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Affected Areas: Central-Southern Part of North Philippine Sea.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central-Southern Part of North Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northeastern Part of Central Philippine Sea and Southern Portion of North Philippine Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Fitow (Quedan).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu Oct 03, 2013
Class/Name: TS Fitow (Quedan)
Location of Center: Near 19.7º N Lat 129.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 880 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 820 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 790 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 810 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 780 km SSE of Okinawa, Okinawa
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph
Present Movement: N @ 07 kph
Towards: Okinawa-Miyakojima Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

_____________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS FITOW (QUEDAN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__________________________________________________________________________________________

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | Offline (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation