Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS FITOW (QUEDAN) Update #001

for Tuesday, 01 October 2013 [10:38 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM FITOW (QUEDAN) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Tuesday 01 October 2013

Tropical Depression 22W (QUEDAN) has strengthened into a storm...internationally named as FITOW (a name contributed by Micronesia and it means - Yapese name for a beautiful fragrant flower). FITOW (QUEDAN) is not likely to directly affect any part of the country.

Residents and visitors along the southern islands of Japan should closely monitor the development of FITOW (Quedan).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Fitow (Quedan) was located over the Central Philippine Sea...about 785 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Samar or 865 km east of Virac, Catanduanes...currently moving north with a very slow forward speed of 05 km/hr towards Ryukyus.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center. Fitow (Quedan) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Fitow (Quedan) is estimated to be extreme (300 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Fitow (Quedan) is expected to move north-northwest during the next 24 hours...with a turn to the north through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Fitow (Quedan) will be moving over the north and eastern part of the Philippine Sea thru Thursday.

TS Fitow (Quedan) will continue to gain strength during the next 24 hours...and could become a Typhoon (TY) early Wednesday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 185 km/hr on Thursday early morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it moves north-northwest across the Philippine Sea...about 820 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes [5AM OCT 02: 16.6N 131.4E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 3 Typhoon as it turns slightly to the north...about 975 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [5AM OCT 03: 19.6N 131.4E @ 185kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Strengthens further...as it continues moving north...about 645 km southeast of Okinawa, Okinawa [5AM OCT 04: 21.9N 131.7E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern part of Central Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern portion of the Central Philippine Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Fitow (Quedan).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue Oct 01, 2013
Class/Name: TS Fitow (Quedan)
Location of Center: Near 14.0º N Lat 132.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 785 km ENE of Borongan City, Samar
Distance 2: 865 km E of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 1,110 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1,180 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1,210 km ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: N @ 05 kph
Towards: Ryukyus
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 500 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS FITOW (QUEDAN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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