Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS FITOW (QUEDAN) Update #004

for Wednesday, 02 October 2013 [9:00 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM FITOW (QUEDAN) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 02 October 2013

Tropical Storm FITOW (QUEDAN) continues to move poleward across the North Philippine Sea as it strengthened further into a near Typhoon intensity and threatens Ryukyu Islands.

Residents and visitors along the southern islands of Japan and Northern Taiwan should closely monitor the development of FITOW (Quedan).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TS Fitow (Quedan) was located over the Philippine Sea...about 895 km northeast of Casiguran, Aurora or 840 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela...currently moving north with a slow forward speed of 11 km/hr towards Ryukyus.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 110 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers from the center. Fitow (Quedan) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Fitow (Quedan) is estimated to be extreme (350 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Fitow (Quedan) is expected to move north-northwest during the next 24 hours...with a little turn to the north thru 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Fitow (Quedan) will be moving across the central portion of the North Philippine Sea thru Friday.

TS Fitow (Quedan) will continue to gain strength during the next 24 hours...and could become a Typhoon (TY) on Thursday early morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 175 km/hr on Friday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 2 Typhoon as it moves north-northwest across the central-southern part of North Philippine Sea...about 790 km east of Basco, Batanes [5PM OCT 03: 20.9N 129.5E @ 160kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches its peak intensity as it veers a little to the north...about 370 km southeast of Okinawa, Okinawa [5PM OCT 04: 23.4N 129.2E @ 175kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly as it moves in the vicinity of Okinawa Island...about 50 km southwest of Okinawa, Okinawa [5PM OCT 05: 26.2N 127.4E @ 160kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - where Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (101-120 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). Possible "Eye" may also be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Affected Areas: Central-Southern Part of North Philippine Sea.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northeastern Part of Central Philippine Sea and Central-Southern Portion of North Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northeastern Part of Central Philippine Sea and Southern Portion of North Philippine Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Fitow (Quedan).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed Oct 02, 2013
Class/Name: TS Fitow (Quedan)
Location of Center: Near 18.7º N Lat 130.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 895 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 840 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 835 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 870 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 900 km SSE of Okinawa, Okinawa
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph
Present Movement: N @ 11 kph
Towards: Ryukyus
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 665 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS FITOW (QUEDAN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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