Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon NARI (SANTI) Update #015

for Sunday, 13 October 2013 [6:26 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON NARI (SANTI) UPDATE NUMBER 015
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sunday 13 October 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Monday 14 October 2013

Typhoon NARI (SANTI) has slightly intensified while over the western part of the South China Sea and jogged northwestward during the past 3 hours...threat to Central Vietnam remains.

Meanwhile, the very large Typhoon WIPHA (25W) continues to intensify and is now a Category 3 cyclone. As of 5:00 pm today, its eye was estimated about 1,525 km ESE of Basco, Batanes (near 19.7N 136.6E). The system is moving north-northwest at 15 kph in the general direction of the sea south of Japan. Various forecast models indicate this system will briefly enter the PAR on Monday before making a complete recurvature. Due to this development, Wipha will not affectly any part of the Philippines.

Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Central Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Nari (Santi).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of TY Nari (Santi) was located over the western part of the South China Sea...about 505 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam or 760 km west-northwest of Iba, Zambales...currently moving west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 22 km/hr towards Central Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 165 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers. Nari (Santi) has grown into a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Nari (Santi) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Nari (Santi) is expected to resume moving westward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Nari (Santi) will continue to move across the western portion of the South China Sea...approaching the shores of Central Vietnam on Monday afternoon and making landfall over the area in between the cities of Hue and Da Nang on Tuesday afternoon.

TY Nari (Santi) is expected to intensify while over the South China Sea during the next 24 hours and will lose strength through 48 hours as it makes landfall. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds will be maintained at 165 km/hr on Monday morning and decreasing to 120 km/hr on Tuesday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Moving westward across the South China Sea...approaching the coast of Central Vietnam...about 290 km east of Da Nang, Vietnam [2PM OCT 14: 16.0N 110.9E @ 165kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Central Vietnam...just barely a Typhoon...over Da Nang, Vietnam or about 35 km north-northwest of Hoi An, Vietnam [2PM OCT 15: 16.1N 108.2E @ 120kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly dissipating over Eastern Thailand Border...just an area of low pressure...about 320 km west-southwest of Hue, Vietnam [2PM OCT 16: 16.2N 104.6E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

RAGGED EYE - Over the Western part of the South China Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Western part of the South China Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Western part of the South China Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Coastal Areas of Central Vietnam and the Western and Northwestern part of the South China Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Nari (Santi).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Oct 13, 2013
Class/Name: TY Nari (Santi)
Location of Eye: Near 15.8º N Lat 112.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 505 km ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 490 km E of Hoi An, Vietnam
Distance 3: 570 km ESE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 4: 450 km SE of Sanya, Hainan Island
Distance 5: 735 km SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 6: 760 km WNW of Iba, Zambales
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph
Towards: Central Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 775 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY NARI (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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