Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon FITOW (QUEDAN) Update #010

for Saturday, 05 October 2013 [9:29 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON FITOW (QUEDAN) UPDATE NUMBER 010
Issued at: 8:15 PM PhT (12:15 GMT) Saturday 05 October 2013

Typhoon FITOW (QUEDAN) has gained more strength while passing very close to the north of Miyakojima Island of Okinawa Prefecture...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Stormy weather will prevail throughout the night along these groups of southern islands of Japan.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm DANAS (23W) has gained more strength during the past 12 hours. At 5:00 pm today, its center was located about 730 km NW of Saipan Island or 620 km SSW of Iwo To Island (Near 19.3N Lat 140.3E Lon)...with maximum winds of 100 km/hr near the center...currently moving NW at 22 kph in the general directon of southern islands of Japan. Various forecast models suggest this system will enter the northeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Sunday afternoon.

Residents and visitors along the southern islands of Japan, Taiwan and Eastern China. should closely monitor the development of FITOW (Quedan).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of TY Fitow (Quedan) was located over the Southern East China Sea...about 235 km east-northeast of Ishigaki City or 170 km southwest of Naha City...currently moving northwest at a fast forward speed of 30 km/hr towards Southeastern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 165 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 340 kilometers. Fitow (Quedan) remains a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Fitow (Quedan) is estimated to be heavy (250 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Fitow (Quedan) is expected to move northwest to west-northwest during the next 24 hours...then turns a little to the west through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Fitow (Quedan) will be over Northern Fujian, China on Monday afternoon.

TY Fitow (Quedan) will gain more strength during the next 24 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 165 km/hr by Saturday early morning thru afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 1 Typhoon...as it moves closer to Southeastern China...about 230 km east-southeast of Wenzhou [5PM OCT 06: 26.9 122.6E @ 140kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Tropical Storm...after making landfall over Northeastern Fujian and moves over Central Northern Fujian...about 145 km northwest of Fuzhou City, China [5PM OCT 07: 27.3N 118.7E @ 85kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to an Area of Low Pressure...as it moves further to Western Central part of Fujian...about 275 km west-northwest of Fuzhou City, China [5PM OCT 08: 26.6N 116.6E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

75-KM EYE - Miyakojima-Okinawa Area. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Miyakojima-Okinawa Area (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Miyakojima-Okinawa Area.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Nearby islands from Miyakojima and Okinawa. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Fitow (Quedan).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa and Miyakojima Islands tonight. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of nearby islands from Okinawa and Miyakojima. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Oct 05, 2013
Class/Name: TY Fitow (Quedan)
Location of Center: Near 25.2º N Lat 126.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 220 km NE of Ishigaki City
Distance 2: 175 km SW of Naha City
Distance 3: 465 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan Japan
Distance 4: 700 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 870 km NE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: NW @ 30 kph
Towards: Southeastern China
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Heavy [250 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 775 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY FITOW (QUEDAN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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