Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS FITOW (QUEDAN) Update #006

for Thursday, 03 October 2013 [10:30 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM FITOW (QUEDAN) UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued at: 7:15 PM PhT (11:45 GMT) Thursday 03 October 2013

Tropical Storm FITOW (QUEDAN) continues to move poleward slowly across the North Philippine Sea while maintaining its strength...still a threat to Ryukyu Islands.

Residents and visitors along the southern islands of Japan, Northern Taiwan and Eastern China. should closely monitor the development of FITOW (Quedan).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TS Fitow (Quedan) was located over the Philippine Sea...about 810 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 790 km east of Basco, Batanes...currently moving north with a slow forward speed of 15 km/hr towards Okinawa-Miyakojima Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 110 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 295 kilometers. Fitow (Quedan) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Fitow (Quedan) is estimated to be extreme (510 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Fitow (Quedan) is expected to move north-northwest during the next 24 hours...and turns to the northwest thru 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Fitow (Quedan) will exit the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday afternoon.

TS Fitow (Quedan) will gain strength during the next 24 hours...and could become a Typhoon (TY) by early Friday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 150 km/hr by Saturday early morning thru afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies as a Category 1 Typhoon...as it moves north-northwest across the North Philippine Sea...about 765 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [5PM OCT 04: 22.9N 128.9E @ 140kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies further as a Category 1 Typhoon...as it turns to the northwest and exits PAR...about 165 km southwest of Okinawa, Okinawa [5PM OCT 05: 25.3N 126.8E @ 150kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly...as it continues to move northwest towards Eastern China...about 280 km southeast of Ningbo, China [5PM OCT 06: 28.0N 123.4E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - where Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (101-120 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). Possible "Eye" may also be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Affected Areas: Central Part of North Philippine Sea.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central Part of North Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Philippine Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 510 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Fitow (Quedan).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 03, 2013
Class/Name: TS Fitow (Quedan)
Location of Center: Near 21.0º N Lat 129.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 945 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 880 km NE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 810 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 790 km E of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 780 km SSE of Okinawa, Okinawa
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph
Present Movement: N @ 15 kph
Towards: Okinawa-Miyakojima Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [510 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS FITOW (QUEDAN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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