Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon NARI (SANTI) Update #016

for Monday, 14 October 2013 [6:31 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON NARI (SANTI) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Monday 14 October 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Monday 14 October 2013

Typhoon NARI (SANTI) moving closer towards Central Vietnam particularly the cities of Hoi An, Da Nang and Hue. Western outer rainbands now spreading across the area.

Meanwhile, the very large Typhoon WIPHA (25W) continues to strengthen and is now a Category 4 cyclone. As of 5:00 am today, its eye was estimated about 1,435 km ENE of Basco, Batanes (near 21.1N 135.8E). The system has maximum sustained winds of 215 kph with higher gusts and was moving northwest at 15 kph in the general direction of the sea south of Japan. Various forecast models indicate this system will briefly enter the PAR today before making a complete recurvature. Due to this development, Wipha will not affect any part of the Philippines.

Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Central Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Nari (Santi).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the cloud-filled eye of TY Nari (Santi) was located over the western part of the South China Sea...about 335 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam or 405 km east-southeast of Hue, Vietnam...currently moving west to west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 19 km/hr towards Central Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have slightly decreased to 160 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers. Nari (Santi) remains a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Nari (Santi) is estimated to be extreme (520 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Nari (Santi) is expected to move generally westward with a slight west-northwest or west-southwest deviation on its forward track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Nari (Santi) will continue to move across the western portion of the South China Sea...approaching the shores of Central Vietnam by early Tuesday morning and making landfall over the cities of Hoi An and Da Nang just before Tuesday noontime. By Wednesday early morning, Nari (Santi) will be moving across Southern Laos.

TY Nari (Santi) is expected to start weakening within the next 24 hours...and will gradually dissipate through 48 hours as the system moves over land. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds weakening to 130 km/hr (Category 1) on Tuesday early morning and decreasing rapidly to 55 km/hr on Wednesday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Moving westward as it bears down the coast of Central Vietnam...weakens into a Category 1 TY...about 130 km east of Da Nang, Vietnam [2AM OCT 15: 16.1N 109.4E @ 130kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Over the western part of Southern Laos...dissipating rapidly over land...just a Tropical Depression (TD)...about 250 km west-southwest of Da Nang, Vietnam [2AM OCT 16: 15.8N 105.9E @ 55kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Continues to dissipated as it moves across Eastern Thailand...just a weak area of low pressure...about 410 km northeast of Bangkok, Thailand [2AM OCT 17: 16.1N 103.5E @ 30kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Over the Western part of the South China Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Western part of the South China Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Offshore areas of Central Vietnam and the western part of the South China Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central Vietnam, Southern Hainan and the Western and Northwestern part of the South China Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 520 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Nari (Santi).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Central Vietnam beginning tonight until Tuesday. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas Vietnam (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Oct 14, 2013
Class/Name: TY Nari (Santi)
Location of Eye: Near 15.7º N Lat 111.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 320 km ESE of Hoi An, Vietnam
Distance 2: 335 km ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 335 km SSE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 4: 405 km ESE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 5: 935 km WNW of Iba, Zambales
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph
Towards: Central Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [520 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 775 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY NARI (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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