Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KROSA (VINTA) Update #005

for Wednesday, 30 October 2013 [1:11 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KROSA (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued at: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Wednesday 30 October 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wednesday 30 October 2013

Tropical Storm KROSA (VINTA) has accelerated and slightly gained strength during the past 6 hours...maintains its threat to Northern Luzon particularly Isabela and Cagayan.

This storm will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing sunny to cloudy conditions w/ passing slight to moderate rains and gusty winds along the eastern sections of Luzon including Bicol Region and Northern Visayas beginning today through Thursday.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS Krosa (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11:00 am today, the center of TS Krosa (Vinta) was located over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 630 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 760 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 22 km/hr towards Northern Luzon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center. TS Krosa (Vinta) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Krosa (Vinta) is expected to maintain a generally west-northwestward movement throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TS Krosa (Vinta) will move across the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea by Thursday morning...approaching the eastern coast of Isabela and Cagayan Thursday afternoon...and will make landfall just to the east of Tuguegarao City by early Thursday evening. Krosa will cross Northern Luzon thru Cagayan, Kalinga, Apayao and Ilocos Norte by Thursday evening...and will emerge over the west coast of Ilocos Norte early Friday morning.

TS Krosa (Vinta) will continue to gain strength through the next 24 hours...and could become a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) on Thursday morning before it makes landfall. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 120 km/hr on Thursday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Strengthens to a typhoon (Category 1) as it approaches the east coast of Isabela and Cagayan...about 215 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela [8AM OCT 31: 17.3N 124.4E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Over the Western Philippine Sea...losing strength slightly after crossing Northern Luzon...about 170 km west-southwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8AM NOV 01: 18.0N 119.0E @ 110kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Moving across the West Philippine and South China Seas...out of PAR...as it reintesified rapidly into a typhoon (Category 1)...about 425 km south of Hong Kong, China [8AM NOV 02: 18.4N 114.4E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: northern-central part of the Central Philippine Sea.
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: northern-central part of the Central Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 120 mm (heavy) along areas near and south of the center of Krosa (Vinta).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed Oct 30, 2013
Class/Name: TS Krosa (Vinta)
Location of Center: Near 16.6º N Lat 129.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 630 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 760 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 780 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 805 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 910 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS KROSA (VINTA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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