Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon NARI (SANTI) Update #018

for Tuesday, 15 October 2013 [7:26 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON NARI (SANTI) UPDATE NUMBER 018
Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tuesday 15 October 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tuesday 15 October 2013

Typhoon NARI (SANTI) is about to make landfall over Central Vietnam...in the vicinity of Da Nang City, Vietnam...Typhoon Conditions expected. This system will be moving across Southern Laos later today.

Meanwhile, the very large Typhoon WIPHA (TINO) has moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...on its way to Southern Japan. As of 5:00 am today, its eye was estimated about 1,360 km ENE of Basco, Batanes (near 26.2N 133.8E). The system has maximum sustained winds of 175 kph with higher gusts and was moving north-northwest at 26 kph in the general direction of Southern Japan.

Residents and visitors along Central Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Nari (Santi).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the cloud-filled eye of TY Nari (Santi) was located just along the coast of Central Vietnam...about 35 km east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam or 100 km east-southeast of Hue, Vietnam...currently moving west with an increased forward speed of 22 km/hr towards Central Vietnam and Laos.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have slightly decreased to 140 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 250 kilometers. Nari (Santi) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Nari (Santi) is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Nari (Santi) is expected to move generally westward with a west-southwest deviation on its forward track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Nari (Santi) will make landfall between the cities of Hue and Da Nang in the next few hours...and traverse Central Vietnam thru Southern Laos today. By Wednesday early morning, Nari (Santi) will be moving across the Laos-Thailand Border into Eastern Vietnam.

TY Nari (Santi) will weaken rapidly within the next 24 hours as it interacts with the rugged terrains of Vietnam and Laos...and will gradually dissipate through 36 hours as the system continues to move over land. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds weakening to 55 km/hr (TD) on Wednesday early morning.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving west to west-southwest as it moves across the Laos-Thailand Border...weakens rapidly into a Tropical Depression (TD)...about 320 km west-southwest of Da Nang, Vietnam [2AM OCT 16: 15.9N 105.2E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Near the city of Da Nang...or just along the coast of Central Vietnam. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Cities of Da Nang, Hue and Hoi An (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central Vietnam.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Laos, Southern part of Northern Vietnam, and the Western part of the South China Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Nari (Santi).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Central Vietnam today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas Vietnam (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue Oct 15, 2013
Class/Name: TY Nari (Santi)
Location of Eye: Near 16.2º N Lat 108.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 35 km ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 50 km NNE of Hoi An, Vietnam
Distance 3: 100 km ESE of Hue, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: W @ 22 kph
Towards: Central Vietnam & Southern Laos
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY NARI (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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