Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon FITOW (QUEDAN) Update #009

for Saturday, 05 October 2013 [11:20 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON FITOW (QUEDAN) UPDATE NUMBER 009
Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday 05 October 2013

Typhoon FITOW (QUEDAN) has maintained its strength as it continues to move northwest over the northern part of North Philippine Sea towards Okinawa-Miyakojima Area endagering further these group of islands. Outer rainbands are now affecting the area. Fitow (Quedan) is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility this afternoon.

Meanwhile, 23W (DANAS) has intensified into a Tropical Storm. Its center was located about 410 km NW of Saipan Island or 540 km NNW of Guam (18.1N Lat 143.2E Lon)...with maximum winds of 65 km/hr near the center...currently moving NW at 26 kph in the general directon of southern islands of Japan. Various forecast models suggest this system will enter the northeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Sunday afternoon.

Residents and visitors along the southern islands of Japan, Taiwan and Eastern China. should closely monitor the development of FITOW (Quedan).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the eye of TY Fitow (Quedan) was located over the North Philippine Sea...about 885 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 760 km northeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving northwest with an increasing forward speed of 19 km/hr towards Okinawa-Miyakojima Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 160 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 340 kilometers. Fitow (Quedan) has grown into a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Fitow (Quedan) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Fitow (Quedan) is expected to move northwest during the next 24 hours...then turns to the west-northwest through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Fitow (Quedan) will be over Eastern Zhejiang, China on Monday morning.

TY Fitow (Quedan) will gain more strength during the next 24 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 165 km/hr by Saturday early morning thru afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as a Category 2 Typhoon...as it passed Okinawa-Miyakojima Area towards the southern part of East China Sea...about 165 km north-northeast of Ishigaki [5AM OCT 06: 26.0 124.7E @ 160kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon...after making landfall over Eastern Zhejiang...about 75 km southwest of Wenzhou City, China [5AM OCT 07: 27.6N 120.1E @ 130kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens to a Tropical Storm...as it moves across the central part of Zhejiang...about 285 km west of Wenzhou City, China [5AM OCT 08: 27.9N 117.7E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

55-KM EYE - Near the northern border of PAR. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Near the northern border of PAR (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern North Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central and Northern North Philippine Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Fitow (Quedan).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa and Miyakojima Islands this morning thru evening. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of nearby islands from Okinawa and Miyakojima. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Oct 05, 2013
Class/Name: TY Fitow (Quedan)
Location of Center: Near 24.2º N Lat 128.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 885 km NE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 760 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 405 km ESE of Ishigaki, Japan
Distance 4: 230 km SSE of Naha, Japan
Distance 5: 675 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: NW @ 19 kph
Towards: Okinawa-Miyakojima Area
CPA [ETA] to Okinawa-Miyakojima Area: Today between 1PM to 4PM
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 720 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY FITOW (QUEDAN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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