Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KROSA (VINTA) Update #007

for Thursday, 31 October 2013 [2:04 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KROSA (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued at: 12:00 MN PhT (16:00 GMT) Thursday 31 October 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thursday 31 October 2013

KROSA (VINTA) almost a Typhoon as it moved quickly closer to Extreme Northern Luzon. Its outer rainbands spreading across the coastal areas of Eastern Luzon including the Bicol Region.

This storm will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing mostly cloudy conditions w/ passing slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and gusty winds across Luzon including Bicol Region and Northern Visayas tonight through Thursday.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS Krosa (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11:00 pm today, the center of TS Krosa (Vinta) was located over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 375 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela or 410 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 30 km/hr towards Cagayan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 110 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers from the center. TS Krosa (Vinta) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 550 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Krosa (Vinta) is expected to maintain a generally west-northwestward movement throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TS Krosa (Vinta) will be approaching the eastern coast of Extreme Northern Luzon by Thursday afternoon...and will make landfall over the eastern shores of Cagayan around or after sunset Thursday. Krosa will cross Extreme Northern Luzon thru Cagayan, Apayao and Ilocos Norte by Thursday evening...and will emerge over the west coast of Ilocos Norte by early Friday morning. On late Saturday afternoon, the storm will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), on its way towards Hainan Island Area.

TS Krosa (Vinta) will continue to gain strength through the next 12 to 24 hours...and could become a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) on Thursday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 140 km/hr on Thursday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY EVENING: Starting to cross Extreme Northern Luzon as it makes landfall over Cagayan...about 50 km southwest of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8PM OCT 31: 18.2N 121.8E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...reintensifies...after losing strength slightly while crossing Extreme Northern Luzon...about 385 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM NOV 01: 18.7N 117.0E @ 140kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Moving across the West Philippine and South China Seas...continues to intensify...about 330 km south-southwest of Hong Kong, China [8PM NOV 02: 19.3N 113.5E @ 160kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - where Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (101-120 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). Possible "Eye" may also be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Affected Areas:Northern part of the Central Philippine Sea.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern part of the Central Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: The Coastal and Beachfront areas of Eastern Luzon from Batanes down to Bicol Peninsula (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Krosa (Vinta).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Wed Oct 30, 2013
Class/Name: TS Krosa (Vinta)
Location of Center: Near 17.4º N Lat 125.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 375 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 410 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 435 km E of Ilagan City
Distance 4: 435 km E of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 570 km ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 30 kph
Towards: Cagayan
CPA [ETA] to Eastern Cagayan: Halloween Night (Thu) [between 6PM-8PM PhT]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS KROSA (VINTA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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