Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS NARI (SANTI) Update #005

for Thursday, 10 October 2013 [1:36 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM NARI (SANTI) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday 10 October 2013

Tropical Storm NARI (SANTI) still gaining strength...and is likely to become a Typhoon this afternoon...Outermost western rainbands continues to spread across the Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon (from Isabela down to Southern Quezon). Threat to Central and Northern Luzon increases.

Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region and Batanes Group of Islands should closely monitor the development of Nari (Santi).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11:00 am today, the center of TS Nari (Santi) was located over the Central Philippine Sea...about 350 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes or 555 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 17 km/hr towards Aurora and Quirino Provinces.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 110 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers from the center. Nari (Santi) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Nari (Santi) is estimated to be extreme (310 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Nari (Santi) is expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next 24 hours...with a westward turn by 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Nari (Santi) will continue to be over the Central Philippine Sea...passing well to the north of Bicol Region on Friday morning. By midnight of Saturday, Nari (Santi) will make landfall over Aurora somewhere over or very close to the town of Casiguran...and will traverse the provinces of Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Southern Benguet and Northern Pangasinan on Saturday morning before moving into Lingayen Gulf.

TS Nari (Santi) will continue to rapidly intensify during the next 24 to 48 hours...becoming a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) later today and increasing to Category 2 by Friday evening. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds reaching 165 km/hr before it makes landfall over Aurora Province.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Becomes a TY [Category 1] as it moves west-northwest across the Central Philippine Sea...about 205 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [11AM OCT 11: 16.0N 124.0E @ 150kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens after crossing the Northern Part of Central Luzon...emerges over the Lingayen Gulf...about 15 km northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [11AM OCT 12: 16.2N 120.2E @ 120kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Regaining intensity as it moves across the West Philippine Sea...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 470 km west of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan [11AM OCT 13: 16.2N 115.4E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - where Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (101-120 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). Possible "Eye" may also be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Affected Areas: Central part of the Philippine Sea.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central part of the Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central part of the Philippine Sea and the eastern coastal areas of Eastern Luzon (from Eastern Cagayan down to Southern Quezon) & Bicol Region. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 310 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west, south and near the center of Nari (Santi).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu Oct 10, 2013
Class/Name: TS Nari (Santi)
Location of Center: Near 15.3º N Lat 127.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 350 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 375 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 470 km ENE of Metro Naga
Distance 4: 480 km ENE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 5: 555 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 575 km ENE of Polillo Island
Distance 7: 600 km ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 670 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 17 kph
Towards: Aurora & Quirino Provinces
CPA [ETA] to Aurora: Saturday Midnight [between 11PM-1AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [310 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS NARI (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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