Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KROSA (VINTA) Update #004

for Wednesday, 30 October 2013 [7:44 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KROSA (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wednesday 30 October 2013
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Wednesday 30 October 2013

29W (VINTA) has intensified into a Tropical Storm (TS) and is now internationally known as KROSA (a Cambodian word for a crane)...maintains its threat to Northern Luzon particularly Isabela and Cagayan.

This storm will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing sunny to cloudy conditions w/ passing slight to moderate rains and gusty winds along the eastern sections of Luzon including Bicol Region and Northern Visayas beginning today through Thursday.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS Krosa (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Krosa (Vinta) was located over the northeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 755 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 905 km east of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 19 km/hr towards Northern Luzon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. TS Krosa (Vinta) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Krosa (Vinta) is expected to maintain a generally west-northwestward movement throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TS Krosa (Vinta) will move across the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea by early Thursday morning...approaching the eastern coast of Isabela and Cagayan Thursday afternoon...and will make landfall just to the east of Tuguegarao City by early Thursday evening. Krosa will cross Northern Luzon thru Cagayan, Kalinga, Apayao and Ilocos Norte by Thursday evening...and will emerge over the west coast of Ilocos Norte early Friday morning.

TS Krosa (Vinta) will continue to gain strength through the next 24 to 36 hours...and could become a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) on Thursday afternoon just before it makes landfall. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 120 km/hr on Thursday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens to near-typhoon strength as it approaches the east coast of Isabela and Cagayan...about 340 km east of Palanan, Isabela [2AM OCT 31: 17.1N 125.6E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the west coast of Ilocos Norte...losing strength after crossing Northern Luzon...about 35 km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM NOV 01: 18.1N 120.3E @ 100kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving across the West Philippine and South China Seas...exits PAR as it gained strength...about 470 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [2AM NOV 02: 18.4N 116.2E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea.
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern and southern part of the Central Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near and south of the center of Krosa (Vinta).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Oct 30, 2013
Class/Name: TS Krosa (Vinta)
Location of Center: Near 16.4º N Lat 130.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 755 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 905 km E of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 920 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 955 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 1035 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

_____________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS KROSA (VINTA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__________________________________________________________________________________________

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | Offline (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation