Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon NARI (SANTI) Update #013

for Saturday, 12 October 2013 [11:03 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON NARI (SANTI) UPDATE NUMBER 013
Issued at: 7:45 PM PhT (11:45 GMT) Saturday 12 October 2013

Typhoon NARI (SANTI) has weakened slightly and continues to move farther away from the country...expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early tomorrow morning.

Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Central Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Nari (Santi).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the cloud-filled eye of TY Nari (Santi) was located over the West Philippine Sea...about 280 km west-northwest of Iba, Zambales or 280 km west-southwest of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan...currently moving west with a forward speed of 20 km/hr towards the South China Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 150 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers. Nari (Santi) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 610 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Nari (Santi) is estimated to be extreme (350 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Nari (Santi) is expected to continue moving westward during the next 24 hours...with a slight turn to the west-northwest and slowing down through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Nari (Santi) will continue to move across the West Philippine Sea...exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early tomorrow morning. By Monday afternoon, Nari will be approaching the shores of Central Vietnam.

TY Nari (Santi) is expected to re-intensify over the West Philippine Sea during the next 24 hours and will lose strength again through 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 175 km/hr on Sunday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Moving across the South China Sea...regains Category 2 Status...as it heads west-northwest towards Vietnam...about 510 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam [5PM OCT 13: 15.4N 112.9E @ 175kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Moving closer to Central Vietnam...weakens slightly...about 135 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam [5PM OCT 14: 15.7N 109.4E @ 160kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Moving across Southern Laos...after traversing Central Vietnam...starts to dissipate...about 130 km southwest of Hue, Vietnam [5PM OCT 15: 16.0N 106.5E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Over the northern central part of the West Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Northern Central part of the West Philippine Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern Central part of the West Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern West Philippine Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the south and near the center of Nari (Santi).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Oct 12, 2013
Class/Name: TY Nari (Santi)
Location of Eye: Near 15.4º N Lat 117.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 280 km WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 280 km WSW of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 315 km WSW of Dagupan City
Distance 4: 320 km NW of Subic, Zambales
Distance 5: 345 km W of Tarlac City
Distance 6: 400 km WNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: West @ 20 kph
Towards: South China Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 610 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 feetu
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY NARI (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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