Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 24W (SANTI) Update #001

for Wednesday, 09 October 2013 [8:00 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (SANTI) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Wednesday 09 October 2013

The strong disturbance (LPA 91W) over the Philippine Sea, east of Bicol Region has strengthened into a Tropical Depression locally named as SANTI. This newly-formed cyclone may threaten Central and Northern Luzon particularly Aurora, Isabela and Northern Quezon this weekend.

Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region and Batanes Group of Islands should closely monitor the development of 24W (Santi).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the developing center of TD 24W (Santi) was located over the Central Philippine Sea...about 690 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes or 935 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving westward with a forward speed of 15 km/hr towards Central & Northern Luzon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 24W (Santi) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD 24W (Santi) is expected to move west-northwest during the next 24 hours...with a slight westerly turn by 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 24W (Santi) will continue to remain across the Central Philippine Sea on Thursday morning...passing well to the north of Bicol Region on Friday morning.

TD 24W (Santi) will rapdily intensify during the next 24 to 48 hours...becoming a Tropical Storm (TS) on Thursday and eventually into a Category 1 Typhoon on Friday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds reaching a peak of 130 km/hr on Friday early morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Becomes a TS as it moves west-northwest across the Central Philippine Sea...about 615 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [5AM OCT 10: 15.4N 127.8E @ 75kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Rapidly strengthens into a Category 1 Typhoon as it moves closer to Aurora...about 335 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [5AM OCT 11: 15.8N 125.2E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Strengthens further as it bears down the coast of Aurora Province...prepares to make landfall...about 25 km south-southwest of Casiguran, Aurora [5AM OCT 12: 16.0N 122.0E @ 130ph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central part of the Philippine Sea, Northern Samar and the eastern coastal areas of Catanduanes, Albay and Sorsogon. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 199 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 200 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west and near the center of 24W (Santi).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Oct 09, 2013
Class/Name: TD 24W (Santi)
Location of Center: Near 14.4º N Lat 130.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 690 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 695 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 755 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 805 km ENE of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 935 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 960 km ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 7: 1025 km E of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: W @ 15 kph
Towards: Central & Northern Luzon
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): --- km [N/A]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 08 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

_____________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 24W (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__________________________________________________________________________________________

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | Offline (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation