Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon NARI (SANTI) Update #011

for Saturday, 12 October 2013 [8:07 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON NARI (SANTI) UPDATE NUMBER 011
Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Saturday 12 October 2013

Typhoon NARI (SANTI) has weakened gradually after crossing the rugged terrain of Central Luzon...now emerging over the West Philippine Sea, near the coast of Zambales. Improving weather conditions will be expected today as the cyclone moves farther away from Luzon.

Residents and visitors along Western Luzon, Hainan Island and Central Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Nari (Santi).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the cloud-filled eye of TY Nari (Santi) was located over the West Philippine Sea, near the coast of Zambales...about 60 km northwest of Iba, Zambales or 95 km south-southwest of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan...currently moving west with a forward speed of 28 km/hr towards the West Philippine Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 165 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers. A WeatherPhilippines/Meteomedia Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in SM City Tarlac has measured wind gusts of 146 km/hr blowing from the north-northeast at around 1:30 AM PhT this morning. Nari (Santi) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 610 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Nari (Santi) is estimated to be extreme (320 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Nari (Santi) is expected to continue moving westerly with an decrease in forward speed during the next 24 through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Nari (Santi) will be moving across the West Philippine Sea this morning...passing along the Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal later this afternoon and leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Sunday morning. By Monday morning, Nari will be approaching the shroes of Central Vietnam.

TY Nari (Santi) is expected to re-intensify over the West Philippine Sea through 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 175 km/hr on Monday morning - as it approaches the coast of Central Vietnam.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Exits the PAR as it heads west towards Vietnam...about 725 km south of Hong Kong, China [5AM OCT 13: 15.7N 114.4E @ 160kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Moving closer to Central Vietnam...re-intensifies...about 290 km east of Da Nang, Vietnam [5AM OCT 14: 16.0N 110.9E @ 175kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Makes landfall over Central Vietnam...about 30 km southeast of Hue, Vietnam [5AM OCT 15: 16.3N 107.8E @ 150kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Over the eastern part of the West Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Eastern part of the West Philippine Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern part of the West Philippine Sea, Zambales, Pangasinan, Bataan, Pampanga, and Tarlac.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: West Philippine Sea and the rest of Luzon including Mindoro. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 320 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west, south and near the center of Nari (Santi).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Western Sections of Central Luzon this morning. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Oct 12, 2013
Class/Name: TY Nari (Santi)
Location of Eye: Near 15.5º N Lat 119.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 60 km NW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 95 km SSW of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 100 km SW of Dagupan City
Distance 4: 115 km NNW of Subic, Zambales
Distance 5: 120 km WNW of Tarlac City
Distance 6: 205 km NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: West @ 28 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [320 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 610 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY NARI (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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