Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 24W (SANTI) Update #003

for Wednesday, 09 October 2013 [8:30 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (SANTI) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Wednesday 09 October 2013

Tropical Depression 24W (SANTI) has maintained its strength while moving west over the central part of the Philippine Sea. Threat to Luzon continues...with a Projected Landfall Area over the province of Aurora on Saturday morning. Its outermost, developing rainbands are now spreading along the eastern shorelines of Bicol and Northern Samar.

Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region and Batanes Group of Islands should closely monitor the development of 24W (Santi).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the developing center of TD 24W (Santi) was located over the Central Philippine Sea...about 530 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes or 775 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving west with an increased forward speed of 11 km/hr towards Central & Northern Luzon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 55 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 24W (Santi) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD 24W (Santi) is expected to move west-northwest during the next 24 hours...with a slight westerly turn by 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 24W (Santi) will continue to be over the Central Philippine Sea on Thursday afternoon...passing well to the north of Bicol Region on Friday afternoon.

TD 24W (Santi) will rapidly intensify during the next 24 to 48 hours...becoming a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight and eventually into a Category 1 Typhoon on Friday afternoon. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds reaching a peak of 130 km/hr before it makes landfall over Aurora Province by early Saturday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a TS as it moves west-northwest across the Central Philippine Sea...about 495 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [5PM OCT 10: 15.2N 126.6E @ 85kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly strengthens into a Category 1 Typhoon as it turns slightly to the west while moving closer to the province of Aurora...about 125 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [5PM OCT 11: 15.8N 123.2E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Over Benguet-Pangasinan Border...crossing the northern part of Central Luzon...about 35 km east-northeast of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [5PM OCT 12: 16.1N 120.6E @ 130ph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central part of the Philippine Sea and the eastern coastal areas of Northern Samar & Catanduanes. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 199 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 200 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west and near the center of 24W (Santi).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed Oct 09, 2013
Class/Name: TD 24W (Santi)
Location of Center: Near 14.5º N Lat 129.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 530 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 540 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 605 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 645 km ENE of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 775 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 795 km E of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 7: 870 km E of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph
Present Movement: W @ 11 kph
Towards: Central & Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Aurora: Saturday [between 6AM-8AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): --- km [N/A]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 24W (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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