Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) Update #011

for Friday, 01 November 2013 [1:09 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KROSA (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 011
Issued at: 12:00 MN PhT (16:00 GMT) Friday 01 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Friday 01 November 2013

Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) has weakened slightly as it continues to traverse Extreme Northern Luzon...now approaching the northern part of Apayao and Ilocos Norte.

Residents and visitors along Southern China and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of TY Krosa (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11:00 pm today, the weakening eye of TY Krosa (Vinta) was located off the northwestern part of Cagayan...about 35 km east of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte or 65 km west-northwest of Aparri, Cagayan...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 24 km/hr towards the northern part of Ilocos Norte.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 150 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 215 kilometers. TY Krosa (Vinta) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Krosa (Vinta) is expected to move west-northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TY Krosa (Vinta) will move across the northern portions of Apayao and Ilocos Norte within the next few hours...and will emerge along the coast of Ilocos Norte early Friday morning. Krosa (Vinta) will be over the West Philippine Sea by daybreak of Friday...and will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday afternoon or evening. By Saturday evening, the typhoon will be over the South China Sea...moving closer to Hainan Island.

TY Krosa (Vinta) will continue to weaken through the next 12 hours while emerging over the West Philippine Sea due to its land interaction with Northern Luzon. It will reintensify to a Category 2 Typhoon (TY) over the South China Sea through 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to a peak of 175 km/hr on Saturday evening.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

FRIDAY EVENING: Reintensifies to Category 2 as it moves WNW across the West Philippine & South China Seas...about 330 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM NOV 01: 19.0N 117.6E @ 160kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Continues to gain strength as it moves across the South China Sea...already out of the PAR...about 320 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [8PM NOV 02: 19.5N 114.9E @ 175kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Starts to weaken as it approaches the eastern coast of Hainan Island...turns more westerly...about 115 km east of Qionghai, Hainan [8PM NOV 03: 19.2N 111.6E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DECAYING CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over Northwestern Cagayan...approaching Northern Apayao. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
WEAKENING EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Northwestern Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Southern Balintang Channel and Apayao (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of Cagayan. Calayan Island, Kalinga, Ilocos Sur, Abra and the rest of the Balintang Channel.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Batanes Islands, rest of Northern Luzon and the rest of the Balintang and Bashi Channels. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Krosa (Vinta).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Cagayan and Ilocos Provinces tonight and tomorrow. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 31, 2013
Class/Name: TY Krosa (Vinta)
Location of Eye: Near 18.6º N Lat 121.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 35 km E of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 65 km WNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 70 km NE of Laoag City
Distance 4: 90 km SSW of Calayan Island
Distance 5: 115 km W of Santa Ana, Cagayan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: WNW @ 24 kph
Towards: Northern part of Apayao and Ilocos Norte
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY KROSA (VINTA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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