Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 90W (ZORAIDA) Update #001

for Monday, 11 November 2013 [9:41 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (ZORAIDA) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday 11 November 2013
Next Update: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Monday 11 November 2013

The strong disturbance (LPA 90W) off the southeastern most part of the Philippine Sea, near the Republic of Palau has strengthened into a Tropical Depression (TD) [ZORAIDA]...could pose a threat to Northeastern Mindanao and Visayas in the coming days.

Residents and visitors along Mindanao and Visayas should closely monitor the development of this unnamed depression.

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the center of the unnamed TD was located over the southeastern portion of the Philippine Sea...about 335 km south-southeast of Korok, Republic of Palau or 1,240 km southeast of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 26 km/hr towards Northeastern Mindanao and Visayas.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

This TD is expected to continue accelerating northwestward during the next 24 hours...turning west-northwestward through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of the TD will make landfall along Surigao Del Sur...passing across Agusan Del Norte on Tuesday afternoon...and will traverse Southern Visayas Tuesday night until Wednesday early morning.

The TD will slightly intensify within the next 24 hours...and could become a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) on Tuesday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 65 km/hr by Tuesday early morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a minimal TS as it moves closer to Surigao Provinces...about 430 km ESE of Bislig City [2AM NOV 12: 7.8N 130.2E @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a TD as it traverses Southern Visayas...over Southern Cebu...about 45 km NNE of Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental [2AM NOV 13: 9.7N 123.4E @ 55kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Regains TS strength as it moves across the West Philippine Sea...about 150 km NW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM NOV 14: 10.8N 117.9E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Republic of Palau (click here to know more about Rainbands).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Nov 11, 2013
Class/Name: TD (Zoraida)
Location of Center: Near 4.3º N Lat 135.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 35 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 335 km SSE of Koror, Palau
Distance 3: 1045 km SE of Cateel, Davao Oriental
Distance 4: 1115 km SE of Metro Davao
Distance 5: 1240 km SE of Surigao City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 26 kph
Towards: Northeastern Mindanao & Visayas
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

_____________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 90W (ZORAIDA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__________________________________________________________________________________________

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | Offline (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation