Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon HAIYAN (YOLANDA) Update #016

for Saturday, 09 November 2013 [9:49 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON HAIYAN (YOLANDA) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Saturday 09 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sunday 10 November 2013

Typhoon HAIYAN (YOLANDA) continues to weaken and has already moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). This deadly howler now endangers Central and Northern Vietnam.

Residents and visitors along Vietnam and Laos should closely monitor the development of Haiyan (Yolanda).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of TY Haiyan (Yolanda) was located over South China Sea...about 735 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan or 640 km southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam...currently moving very quickly west-northwest with a forward speed of 33 km/hr towards Central & Northern Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 195 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers. STY Haiyan remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Haiyan is expected to continue moving rapidly in a west-northwest track within the next 24 hours...turning northwest through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TY Haiyan will continue cruising fast very near the coastal areas of Central Vietnam from Hoi An to Than Hoa Cities on Sunday morning through Monday morning. On Sunday morning, Haiyan will make landfall somewhere along the coastal areas of Thai Hoa, Than Hoa and Nam Dinh...and will be passing over or very close to the city of Hanoi Sunday afternoon.

TY Haiyan (Yolanda) will continue losing strength within the next 24 through 48 hours as the system traverses the slightly cooler waters of the South China Sea...and will be just a Tropical Storm (TS) on Sunday afternoon or evening after the system makes landfall over Northern Vietnam. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to just 160 km/hr by Sunday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Category 2 Typhoon as it approaches the Northern Vietnam while sidesweeping the coastal and shoreline areas of Central Vietnam...about 115 km North of Da Nang, Vietnam [2PM NOV 10: 17.1N 108.4E @ 160kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Northern Vietnam...weakens to TS...about 25 km SE of Hanoi, Vietnam [2PM NOV 11: 20.9N 106.0E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD FILLED EYE - Over the western part of the South China Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: None. (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Shorelines of Eastern Vietnam.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Palawan incl. Calamian Group of Islands, South-Central part of Vietnam (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Haiyan (Yolanda).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Nov 09, 2013
Class/Name: TY Haiyan (Yolanda)
Location of Eye: Near 13.9º N Lat 113.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 320 km NNW of Pagasa Is., Spratlys
Distance 2: 640 km SE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 620 km SE of Hoi An, Vietnam
Distance 4: 735 km WNW of Coron, Palawan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: WNW @ 33 kph
Towards: Central & Northern Vietnam>
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

_____________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA / MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 RGB & INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGES:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY HAIYAN (YOLANDA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__________________________________________________________________________________________

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | Offline (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation