Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) Update #016

for Saturday, 02 November 2013 [8:22 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KROSA (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Saturday 02 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sunday 03 November 2013

Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) has slowed down gradually while over the South China Sea. Its wind intensity remains and is forecast to make a southwestward dive towards the Central Vietnam within the next 2 to 3 days.

Residents and visitors along Southern China, Hainan Island and Central Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Krosa (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the large eye of TY Krosa (Vinta) was located over the northwestern part of the South China Sea...about 260 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China or 490 km east-northeast of Qionghai, Hainan Island...currently moving west-northwest slowly with a decreased forward speed of 07 km/hr across the South China Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 185 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers. TY Krosa (Vinta) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Krosa (Vinta) is expected to drift slowly westward in the next 12 hours before making a west-southwest to southwesterly turn through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TY Krosa (Vinta) will remain over the open waters of the South China Sea, well to the east of Hainan Island today through Tuesday.

TY Krosa (Vinta) will maintain its strength within the next few hours and will start weakening...becoming a Tropical Storm (TS) by 48 hours as it moves across the western part of the South China Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 95 km/hr on Monday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Starts moving west-southwest across the western part of the South China Sea...weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon...about 290 km south of Macau, China [2PM NOV 03: 19.6N 113.5E @ 150kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a TS as it moves more southwesterly across the western part of the South China Sea, just well to the southeast of Hainan Island...about 140 km southeast of Sanya, Hainan Is. [2PM NOV 04: 17.3N 110.4E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it makes landfall over Central Vietnam...moving across land areas...about 210 km SW of Da Nang, Vietnam. [2PM NOV 05: 15.0N 106.6E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

LARGE 55-KM RAGGED EYE - over the northwestern portion of the South China Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Northwestern part of the South China Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern and NW part of the South China Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China and Northwesterrn part of the South China Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Krosa (Vinta).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Nov 02, 2013
Class/Name: TY Krosa (Vinta)
Location of Eye: Near 20.0º N Lat 115.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 260 km SSE of Hong Kong, China
Distance 2: 290 km SE of Macau, China
Distance 3: 490 km ENE of Qionghai, Hainan Island
Distance 4: 610 km WNW of Laoag City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: WNW @ 07 kph
Towards: South China Sea
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY KROSA (VINTA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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