Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) Update #014

for Friday, 01 November 2013 [8:21 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KROSA (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 014
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Friday 01 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Saturday 02 November 2013

Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) has moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it tracks west-northwest across the West Philippine and South China Seas with no change in strength.

Residents and visitors along Southern China, Hainan Island and Central Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Krosa (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the large eye of TY Krosa (Vinta) was located over the West Philippine and South China Seas...about 360 km northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte or 455 km southeast of Hong Kong, China...currently moving west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 15 km/hr across the West Philippine and South China Seas.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 140 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers. TY Krosa (Vinta) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Krosa (Vinta) is expected to move west-northwest to west in the next 24 hours then turns west-southwest through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TY Krosa (Vinta) will remain over the open waters of the South China Sea, well to the east of Hainan Island on Saturday through Sunday.

TY Krosa (Vinta) will re-intensify through the next 24 hours while moving across the western part of the South China Sea...and by 48 hours, it will start to weaken due to entrainment of cooler-dry air from the approaching surge of the Northeast Monsoon. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to a peak of 160 km/hr on Saturday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Moving west across the South China Sea as it regains Category 2 (TY) status...about 385 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM NOV 02: 19.9N 115.4E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens as it turns west-southwest towards Eastern Hainan...about 215 km east-southeast of Qionghai, Hainan Is. [2PM NOV 03: 19.5N 113.8E @ 120kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Turns southwestward as it weakens to a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 70 km northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. [2PM NOV 04: 17.6N 111.6E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over the northern portion of the West Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Northern part of the West Philippine Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern part of the West Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern part of the West Philippine and South China Seas (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Krosa (Vinta).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Nov 01, 2013
Class/Name: TY Krosa (Vinta)
Location of Eye: Near 19.4º N Lat 117.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 360 km NW of Laoag City
Distance 2: 455 km SE of Hong Kong, China
Distance 3: 505 km SE of Macau, China
Distance 4: 725 km E of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph
Towards: West Philippine and South China Seas.
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY KROSA (VINTA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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