Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 90W (ZORAIDA) Update #003

for Monday, 11 November 2013 [11:22 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (ZORAIDA) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Monday 11 November 2013
Next Update: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Tuesday 12 November 2013

Tropical Depression (TD) [ZORAIDA] has moved northwest during the past 6 hours as it maintains its strength...continues to pose threat to the provinces of Northern and Eastern Mindanao and the Visayas.

Residents and visitors along Mindanao and Visayas should closely monitor the development of Zoraida .

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TD Zoraida was located over the South Philippine Sea...about 550 km southeast of Cateel, Davao Oriental or 630 km east-southeast of Metro Davao...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 20 km/hr towards Northeastern Mindanao.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD Zoraida is expected to accelerate west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TD Zoraida will make landfall along the border of Surigao Del Sur and Davao Oriental on Tuesday between 9-10 AM...passing across Agusan Del Sur, Bukidnon and Misamis Oriental in the afternoon...and will traverse the Mindanao Sea by evening. It will be crossing the Sulu Sea on Thursday.

TD Zoraida will likely intensify within the next 12 to 18 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 55 km/hr by Tuesday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly as it crosses Northeastern Mindanao...about 65 km E of Cagayan De Oro City [2PM NOV 12: 8.5N 125.2E @ 45kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Reintensifies slightly as it traverses the Sulu Sea...about 85 km SE of San Vicente, Palawan [2PM NOV 13: 10.0N 119.9E @ 55kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a TS as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 45 km NNW of Pagasa Island [2PM NOV 14: 11.5N 114.2E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern Mindanao (click here to know more about Rainbands).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon Nov 11, 2013
Class/Name: TD (Zoraida)
Location of Center: Near 6.0º N Lat 131.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 550 km SE of Cateel, Davao Oriental
Distance 2: 630 km ESE of Metro Davao
Distance 3: 750 km SE of Surigao City Oriental
Distance 4: 780 km SE of Cagayan De Oro City
Distance 5: 390 km WSW of Koror, Palau
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 20 kph
Towards: Northeastern Mindanao
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 90W (ZORAIDA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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