Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 90W (ZORAIDA) Update #007

for Tuesday, 12 November 2013 [7:04 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (ZORAIDA) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tuesday 12 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wednesday 13 November 2013

Tropical Depression (TD) [ZORAIDA] has just crossed the Northeastern Provinces of Mindanao...maintaining its strength and bringing wet weather across most parts of Mindanao and Visayas.

Residents and visitors along Mindanao, Visayas and Palawan should closely monitor the development of Zoraida.

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TD Zoraida was located over Northeastern Bukidnon...about 80 km east of Cagayan de Oro City or 50 km southwest of Butuan City...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 19 km/hr towards the Bohol Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD Zoraida is expected to rapidly move west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TD Zoraida will be traversing the Bohol Sea tonight...passing south of Negros...and will be over the Sulu Sea by Wednesday early morning. It will cross Northern Palawan by noontime Wednesday and will emerge over the West Philippine Sea in the afternoon. By Thursday morning, TD Zoraida will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) passing south of Pagasa Island towards the South China Sea.

TD Zoraida will likely intensify within the next 24 hours...and will gain further strength when it reaches the West Philippine Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 85 km/hr by Thursday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies slightly...as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea...after crossing the Sulu Sea and Northern Palawan...about 70 km NNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM NOV 13: 10.3N 118.5E @ 55kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a minimal Tropical Storm...as it approaches Southeastern Vietnam...about 335 km ESE of Nha Trang, Vietnam [2PM NOV 14: 10.9N 111.9E @ 65kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating over Central Cambodia...about 50 km NW of Phnom Penh, Cambodia [2PM NOV 15: 12.0N 104.7E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

LOOSE RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Visayas, Western Mindanao and Palawan (click here to know more about Rainbands).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue Nov 12, 2013
Class/Name: TD (Zoraida)
Location of Center: Near 8.5º N Lat 125.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 80 km E of Cagayan de Oro City
Distance 2: 50 km NE of Malaybalay, Bukidnon
Distance 3: 50 km SW of Butuan City
Distance 4: 95 km SE of Camiguin Island
Distance 5: 225 km ESE of Dumaguete City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph
Towards: Bohol Sea
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 90W (ZORAIDA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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