Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) Update #013

for Friday, 01 November 2013 [2:19 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON KROSA (VINTA) UPDATE NUMBER 013
Issued at: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Friday 01 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Friday 01 November 2013

Typhoon KROSA (VINTA) is currently moving across the West Philippine Sea and is now about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Improving weather is expected as the cyclone moves farther away.

Residents and visitors along Southern China and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of TY Krosa (Vinta).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11:00 am today, the eye of TY Krosa (Vinta) was located near the West Philippine Sea...about 245 km west-northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte or 235 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte...currently moving west to west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 24 km/hr towards the West Philippine and South China Seas.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 140 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers. TY Krosa (Vinta) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Krosa (Vinta) is expected to move west-northwest to west in the next 24 hours then turns west-southwest through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TY Krosa (Vinta) will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by this afternoon. On Saturday through Sunday, Krosa will be moving across the South China Sea east of Hainan Island.

TY Krosa (Vinta) will reintensify through the next 24 hours while moving across the West Philippine and South China Seas. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to a peak of 160 km/hr on Saturday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Moving west across the South China Sea as it regains Category 2 (TY) status...about 385 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [8AM NOV 02: 19.1N 115.8E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens as it turns west-southwest towards Eastern Hainan...about 215 km east-southeast of Qionghai, Hainan Is. [8AM NOV 03: 18.1N 112.2E @ 120kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Turns southwestward as it weakens to a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 70 km northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. [8AM NOV 04: 16.5N 108.7E @ 085kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over the northern portion of the West Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Northern part of the West Philippine Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern part of the West Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern part of the West Philippine Sea, coastal areas of Ilocos Provinces, Babuyan Islands and the Balintang Channel. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (extreme) along areas near the center of Krosa (Vinta).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Ilocos Provinces tonight and tomorrow. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon and Southern China (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Nov 01, 2013
Class/Name: TY Krosa (Vinta)
Location of Eye: Near 18.9º N Lat 118.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km WNW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 235 km WNW of Laoag City
Distance 3: 450 km SSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 595 km SE of Hong Kong, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: W @ 24 kph
Towards: West Philippine and South China Seas.
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY KROSA (VINTA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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