Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon HAIYAN Update #006

for Wednesday, 06 November 2013 [8:37 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wednesday 06 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thursday 07 November 2013

Super Typhoon HAIYAN has strengthened further to 250 km/hr as it continues to accelerate towards the Republic of Palau...will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight. The potential landfall area of this super typhoon is likely along the Southern Samar and Leyte Area on or before Friday noon, November 08.

This typhoon is similar in track and strength of Super Typhoon MIKE (RUPING) which passed across the Visayas in November of 1990 and devastated much of Metro Cebu.

Residents living along the eastern seaboards of the Philippines from Northern Quezon...Bicol Region...down to Northeastern Mindanao should continue monitoring the approach of this destructive typhoon for possible unprecendented track changes. Plans for emergency situations and/or disaster management planning must be completed as soon as possible as the storm is only less than 2 days away from hitting land.

Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, and Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of Haiyan.

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of STY Haiyan was located in between Yap and Palau Islands...about 210 km east of PAR or 1,365 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte...currently moving very quickly west to west-northwest with a forward speed of 41 km/hr towards South Philippine Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 250 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 215 kilometers from the center. STY Haiyan remains a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY Haiyan is expected to move in a generally straight, west-northwest track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of STY Haiyan will be passing just to the north of Palau in the next few hours...and will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) around midnight tonight. The Super Typhoon will continue to move very fast across the South Philippine Sea throughout Thursday...and will make landfall over the southern tip of Samar, over or very near Guiuan, Samar around noontime on Friday. By Friday afternoon, at approximately 2 PM, Haiyan will be in the vicinity of Tacloban City as it moves toward the northwestern tip of Leyte thereafter.

STY Haiyan will continue to rapidly intensify within the next 24 hours as the system moves over the warmer sea surface temperatures of the Philippine Sea...and could become an extremely dangerous Category 5 STY on Thursday early morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 270 km/hr between Thursday through Friday just before it makes landfall.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a Category 5 Super Typhoon while moving so fast across the South Philippine Sea...about 765 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte [2PM NOV 07: 9.3N 131.7E @ 270kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Over the vicinity of Tacloban City after it made landfall earlier along the Southern tip of Samar...about 55 km northwest of Ormoc City, Leyte [2PM NOV 08: 11.3N 125.0E @ 230kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Over the West Philippine Sea after traversing Mindoro Strait...weakens to Category 3...about 350 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan [2PM NOV 09: 13.2N 117.2E @ 205kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

SMALL 15-KM PINHOLE EYE - over water. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: None (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Approaching the Republic of Palau.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Yap State including Ulithi Islands (Federated States of Micronesia) (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 280 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Haiyan.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed Nov 06, 2013
Class/Name: STY Haiyan (31W)
Location of Eye: Near 7.7º N Lat 136.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 240 km SW of Yap State
Distance 2: 270 km ENE of Republic of Palau
Distance 3: 210 km E of PAR
Distance 4: 1210 km ESE of Siargao Island
Distance 5: 1365 km SE of Tacloban City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 250 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 305 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
Present Movement: West to WNW @ 41 kph
Towards: South Philippine Sea
CPA [ETA] to Southern Samar: Friday Morning [between 10AM-12NN PhT]
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT UW-CIMSS / MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY HAIYAN...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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