Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon HAIYAN (YOLANDA) Update #011

for Friday, 08 November 2013 [10:17 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN (YOLANDA) UPDATE NUMBER 011
Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Friday 08 November 2013
Next Update: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Friday 08 November 2013

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (YOLANDA) is about to make landfall over the shores of Northern Leyte. The wind speeds of this extremely catastrophic cyclone has increased further to 315 km/hr, making it the most powerful typhoon ever observed since Super Typhoon Tip of 1979.

Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, and Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of Haiyan (Yolanda).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the eye of STY Haiyan (Yolanda) was located over Leyte Gulf...about 85 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte or 120 km east of Ormoc City, Leyte...currently moving very quickly west-northwest with a forward speed of 39 km/hr towards Northern Leyte and Northern Panay.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 315 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers. STY Haiyan is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 610 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY Haiyan is expected to maintain its fast and generally straight, west-northwest track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of STY Haiyan will make landfall over the towns of Dulag, Tananuan, and Santa Fe or about 10 km south of Tacloban City between 6-7 AM today...and cross Northern Leyte passing over or very close to Ormoc City. This Super Typhoon will be passing over the northern tip of Cebu, very close to Bogo City around on or before noon today then it will start traversing the North Central part of the Visayas through the afternoon...across Northern Panay (very close to Roxas City and Boracay) between 2 to 5 PM...and will be in the vicinity of Coron, Palawan by late tonight. On Saturday afternoon, Haiyan (Yolanda) will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...and will be approaching the coast of Vietnam on Sunday early morning.

STY Haiyan (Yolanda) will start to weaken slightly within the next 24 through 48 hours as the system makes landfall over North Central Visayas...and will be just a Category 4 TY on Saturday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to just 250 km/hr by Saturday early morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly but remains a very dangerous Category 4 Super Typhoon...moving out into the West Philippine Sea...about 140 km NW of El Nido, Palawan [2AM NOV 08: 12.0N 118.7E @ 250kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of PAR as it approaches the coast of Central Vietnam...weakens to Category 3...about 380 km SE of Da Nang, Vietnam [2AM NOV 09: 14.4N 111.3E @ 205kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Just barely a Typhoon as it makes landfall over Central Vietnam...about 145 km South of Vinh, Vietnam [2AM NOV 10: 17.4N 105.5E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

30-KM ROUND EYE - is expected to traverse Northern Leyte in the next few hours, passing in between Ormoc and Tacloban Cities. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Guiuan and rest of Southeastern Samar, Leyte Gulf, Tacloban-Ormoc City Area, and Northern Leyte. (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of Samar, Bohol, Cebu, Negros, Masbate, Sorsogon Leyte, Masbate, Sorsogon, and Caraga.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Bicol Region, Palawan, Mindoro, Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon, Rest of Visayas and Mindanao (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Haiyan.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible >18 ft (>5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern & Central Visayas this morning. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern Luzon, Eastern and Northern Mindanao and the rest of Visayas incl. Palawan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Nov 08, 2013
Class/Name: STY Haiyan (Yolanda)
Location of Eye: Near 10.9º N Lat 125.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 85 km ESE of Tacloban City
Distance 2: 120 km E of Ormoc City
Distance 3: 185 km E of Bogo City
Distance 4: 325 km ESE of Roxas City
Distance 5: 430 km ESE of Boracay
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 315 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 380 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 5
Present Movement: WNW @ 39 kph
Towards: Leyte-Northern Cebu Area
CPA [ETA] to Leyte: This Morning [between 7-9AM PhT]
Minimum Central Pressure: 895 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA / MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 RGB & INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGES:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY HAIYAN (YOLANDA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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