Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon HAIYAN (YOLANDA) Update #012

for Friday, 08 November 2013 [4:41 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN (YOLANDA) UPDATE NUMBER 012
Issued at: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Friday 08 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Friday 08 November 2013

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (YOLANDA) has made its third landfall over the shores of Northern Panay at around 12 PM today after it made its first and second lanfall over Northern Leyte and northern tip of Cebu respectively. It remains an extremely catastrophic cyclone as evidenced by its intact round clear eye.

Residents and visitors along Visayas and Luzon should closely monitor the development of Haiyan (Yolanda).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11:00 am today, the eye of STY Haiyan (Yolanda) was located over the Visayan Sea...about 85 km east-southeast of Roxas City, Capiz or 50 km north-northeast of Cadiz City, Negros Occidental...currently moving very quickly west-northwest with a forward speed of 30 km/hr towards Northern Panay and Calamian Group of Islands.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have slightly decreased to 295 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 250 kilometers. STY Haiyan has grown into an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 700 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY Haiyan is expected to maintain its fast and generally straight, west-northwest track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of STY Haiyan will cross Northern Panay this afternoon passing south of Boracay around 5 PM today. This Super Typhoon will be passing very close to the north of Pamalican Island this evening (between 8 - 10 PM)...and will be in the vicinity of Coron, Palawan by late tonight. On Saturday afternoon, Haiyan (Yolanda) will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...and will be approaching the coast of Vietnam on Sunday morning.

STY Haiyan (Yolanda) will start to weaken slightly within the next 24 through 48 hours as the system traverses the West Philippine and South China Seas...and will be just a Category 4 TY on Saturday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to just 240 km/hr by Saturday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly but remains a very dangerous Category 4 Super Typhoon...moving out into the West Philippine Sea...about 340 km WNW of El Nido, Palawan [8AM NOV 09: 12.3N 116.7E @ 240kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Already outside of PAR as it approaches the coast of Central Vietnam...weakens to Category 3...about 170 km ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam [8AM NOV 10: 15.6N 109.7E @ 185kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

30-KM ROUND EYE - crossing Northern Panay. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Northern Panay. (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Leyte, Samar, Bohol, Rest of Cebu, Rest of Negros, Rest of Masbate and Sorsogon.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of Bicol Region, Palawan, Mindoro, Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon, Rest of Visayas and Northern Mindanao (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Haiyan.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible >18 ft (>5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Visayas and Southernmost Provinces of Southern Luzon today. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern Luzon and Visayas including Palawan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Nov 08, 2013
Class/Name: STY Haiyan (Yolanda)
Location of Eye: Near 11.3º N Lat 123.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 85 km ESE of Roxas city
Distance 2: 50 km NNE of Cadiz City
Distance 3: 120 km NW of Cebu City
Distance 4: 185 km ESE of Boracay
Distance 5: 120 km NE of Iloilo City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 295 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 360 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 5
Present Movement: WNW @ 30 kph
Towards: Northern Panay-Masbate Area
CPA [ETA] to Northeastern Panay: This Morning [between 7-9AM PhT]
Minimum Central Pressure: 895 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA / MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 RGB & INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGES:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY HAIYAN (YOLANDA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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