for Saturday, 09 November 2013 [1:23 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN (YOLANDA) UPDATE NUMBER 014
Issued at: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Saturday 09 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Saturday 09 November 2013
Super Typhoon HAIYAN (YOLANDA) has just passed over the Calamian Group of Islands and is now emerging over the West Philippine Sea....weakens to a Category 4 cyclone. Its broad rainbands still continues to cover much of the Philippines.
Residents and visitors along Visayas and Luzon should closely monitor the development of Haiyan (Yolanda).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 11:00 pm today, the eye of STY Haiyan (Yolanda) was located over West Philippine Sea...about 145 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan or 135 km northwest of El Nido, Palawan...currently moving very quickly west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 37 km/hr towards Central Vietnam.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 250 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers. STY Haiyan remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with an increased diameter of 835 kilometers across.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
STY Haiyan is expected to continue moving rapidly in a west-northwest track in the next 24 hours then turns to northwest through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of STY Haiyan will be cruising fast across the West Philippine Sea Saturday morning and will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on or before Saturday noon. On Sunday evening, the powerful typhoon will be making landfall along the north central part of Vietnam.
STY Haiyan (Yolanda) will continue losing strength within the next 24 through 48 hours as the system traverses the slightly cooler West Philippine and South China Seas...and will be just a Category 2 TY on Sunday evening as the system makes landfall over Central Vietnam. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to just 220 km/hr by Saturday evening.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY EVENING: Weakening and accelerating WNW across the South China Sea ...already out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 510 km ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam [8PM NOV 09: 14.0N 112.4E @ 220kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Making landfall over the north central part of Vietnam...weakens to Category 2...about 145 km NW of Hue, Vietnam [8PM NOV 10: 17.5N 106.7E @ 160kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
CLOUD FILLED EYE - Over the West Philippine Sea...near the west coast of the Calamian Group of Islands. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: West Coast of Calamian Group. (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern Palawan and the rest of the Calamian Group of Islands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, rest of Luzon including Bicol Region (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Haiyan.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible >18 ft (>5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Calamian Group of Islands, Pamalican Island, Cuyo Island and Southern Mindoro tonight. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of MiMaRoPa and Western Panay (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri Nov 08, 2013
Class/Name: STY Haiyan (Yolanda)
Location of Eye: Near 12.2º N Lat 118.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 145 km WNW of Coron, Palawan
Distance 2: 135 km NW of El Nido, Palawan
Distance 3: 225 km SSW of Lubang Island
Distance 4: 240 km WSW of San Jose, Occ.Mindoro
Distance 5: 350 km SSW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 250 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 305 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
Present Movement: WNW @ 37 kph
Towards: Vietnam>
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 RGB & INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGES:
__________________________________________________________________________________________________ >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY HAIYAN (YOLANDA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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