Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 30W (WILMA) Update #003

for Monday, 04 November 2013 [10:14 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (WILMA) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday 04 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Monday 04 November 2013

Tropical Depression 30W (Wilma) has accelerated as it maintains its strength and is now traversing Central Visayas.

Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas and Palawan should closely monitor the development of 30W (Wilma).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TD 30W (Wilma) was located in the vicinity of Eastern Bohol...about 80 km east-northeast of Tagbilaran City or 85 km southeast of Cebu City...currently moving westward with an increased forward speed of 26 km/hr towards Southern Cebu-Central Negros Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD 30W (Wilma) is expected to continue moving west during the the next 24 hours then turns west-northwest through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TD 30W (Wilma) will traverse Sulu on Tuesday morning and cross Northern Palawan by noontime. It will be over the West Philippine Sea by Tuesday afternoon just off the western coast of Northern Palawan. On Wednesday morning, 30W (Wilma) is likely to have moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) via Pagasa Island.

TD 30W (Wilma) will intensify within the next 24 hours as the system moves over the warm open waters of the Sulu Sea and West Philippine Sea within the next 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 100 km/hr on Wednesday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensified into a Tropical Storm as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea...about 115 km west-southwest of San Vicente, Palawan [2PM NOV 05: 10.2N 118.3E @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Over the South China Sea as it turns to west-northwest...about 145 km west-northwest of Pagasa Island [2PM NOV 06: 11.5N 113.0E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Over Southern Vietnam...weakens after making landfall along the eastern coast of Southern Vietnam...about 55 km northeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. [2PM NOV 07: 11.2N 107.2E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING LOOSE RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Western and Central Visayas (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of 30W (Wilma).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon Nov 04, 2013
Class/Name: TD 30W (Wilma)
Location of Center: Near 9.8º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 80 km ENE of Tagbilaran City
Distance 2: 85 km SE of Cebu City
Distance 3: 70 km SW of Maasin City, Leyte
Distance 4: 145 km NE of Dumaguete City
Distance 5: 195 km SE of Bacolod City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: W @ 26 kph
Towards: Southern Cebu-Central Negros Area
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 30W (WILMA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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