Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon HAIYAN Update #003

for Tuesday, 05 November 2013 [9:15 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON HAIYAN UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tuesday 05 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wednesday 06 November 2013

HAIYAN becomes a Typhoon as it continues to move across the Caroline Islands...now poses a threat to Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Northeastern Mindanao. The initial potential landfall area of this typhoon will be along the Samar-Leyte Area on Friday, November 08.

Residents living along the eastern seaboards of the Philippines from Northern Quezon...Bicol Region...down to Northeastern Mindanao should closely monitor the approach of this potentially destructive typhoon. Plans for emergency situations and/or disaster management planning must be implemented beginning today as the storm is only 3 days away from hitting land.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 30W (WILMA) has maintained its strength while accelerating very rapidly across the Spratly Islands and is about to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). As of 5:00 pm today, its center was estimated about 110 km ESE of Pagasa Island (near 10.7N 115.2E). With maximum winds of 55 kph near the center and was moving westward at 39 kph in the general direction of Southern Vietnam.

Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Haiyan.

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of TY Haiyan was located over the central part of the Caroline Islands...about 755 km south-southwest of Hagatna, Guam or 2,055 km east-southeast of Samar, Philippines...currently moving westerly with a forward speed of 30 km/hr towards Yap-Palau Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 120 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers from the center. TY Haiyan remains a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Haiyan is expected to move in a generally straight, west-northwest track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TY Haiyan will passing in between the islands of Yap and Palau by Wednesday evening...and will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the wee hours of Thursday.

TY Haiyan will continue to intensify within the next 24 to 48 hours as the system moves over the warmer sea surface temperatures of the Philippine Sea...and could become a dangerous Category 4 Typhoon on Thursday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 220 km/hr by Thursday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching Category 3 strength as it passes in between Yap and Palau Islands...about 220 km south-southeast of Colonia, Yap [2PM NOV 06: 7.6N 138.6E @ 175kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens to a Category 4 Typhoon as it moves across the South Philippine Sea...about 645 km east of Siargao Island [2PM NOV 07: 9.6N 132.0E @ 220kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Moving across Southern Samar at near-Super Typhoon strength...about 25 km north-northeast of Tacloban City, Leyte [2PM NOV 08: 11.5N 125.1E @ 230kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: None (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Yap State (Federated States of Micronesia) (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Haiyan.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue Nov 05, 2013
Class/Name: TY Haiyan
Location of Eye: Near 6.7º N Lat 143.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 755 km SSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 690 km SE of Yap State
Distance 3: 960 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1015 km ESE of the Republic of Palau
Distance 5: 2055 km ESE of Samar, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: West @ 30 kph
Towards: Yap-Palau Area
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT UW-CIMSS / MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY HAIYAN...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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