WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM LINGLING (AGATON) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Saturday 18 January 2014
Next Update: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Sunday 19 January 2014
LINGLING [AGATON] becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moved southeastward during the past 6 hours...now threatens Caraga and Davao Provinces with heavy rains tonight.
Lingling (Agaton) will continue to enhance the cool surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing mostly cloudy conditions w/ passing slight to moderate rains and gusty winds across Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region and some parts of the Visayas and Northern Mindanao through Sunday.
Residents and visitors along Northeastern, Northern and Central Mindanao should closely monitor the development of Lingling (Agaton).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT...
Location: Over the South Philippine Sea (near 8.5N 128.1E)
About: 195 km northeast of Cateel, Davao Oriental...or 200 km east-northeast of Bislig City, Surigao City
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): Extreme [500 mm]
Past Movement: Southeast at 15 kph
Forecast Movement: West-southwest at 13 kph
Towards: Surigao Del Sur-Davao Oriental Area
1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Lingling (Agaton) is expected to move west-southwestward within the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TS Lingling (Agaton) will make landfall along the Surigao Del Sur-Davao Oriental Border on Sunday morning (between 5-7 AM)...and traverse the northern portions of Compostela Valley and Davao Provinces, and Southeastern Bukidnon through Sunday afternoon.
TS Lingling (Agaton) is expected to lose strength into a Tropical Depression (TD) before and during landfall and will weaken further into an area of low pressure through 24 hours due to its passage across the landmass of Southern Caraga, Davao and Northern Mindanao Regions. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 35 km/hr on Sunday afternoon.
The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Over Southeastern Bukidnon [2PM JAN 19: 8.4N 124.9E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places with possible or ongoing effects caused by the current tropical cyclone:
CARAGA - Heavy rains of 50 to 100 mm will be experienced along these areas...becoming extreme rains of more than 100 mm along the provinces of Surigao Del Norte, Dinagat and Siargao Islands, Agusan Del Norte, and the northern portions of Surigao Del Sur and Agusan Del Sur through Sunday afternoon. Residents living along the hazard-prone areas are advised to take precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.
EASTERN VISAYAS / CEBU / BOHOL / MISAMIS ORIENTAL / DAVAO / NORTHEASTERN COTABATO / NORTHERN DAVAO DEL SUR / COMPOSTELA VALLEY / NORTHERN DAVAO ORIENTAL - Moderate to heavy rains of 30-50 mm will be experienced along these areas through Sunday afternoon. Residents living along hazard-prone areas are advised to take precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Jan 18, 2014
Class/Name: TS Lingling (Agaton)
Location of Center: Near 8.5º N Lat 128.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 195 km NE of Cateel, Davao Oriental
Distance 2: 200 km E of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 3: 200 km ENE of Bislig City
Distance 4: 270 km SE of Siargao Island
Distance 5: 320 km ESE of Surigao City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Past Movement: SE @ 15 kph
Forecast Movement: WSW @ 13 kph
Towards: Southern Caraga-Davao Oriental Area
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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