Bushman's Typhoon Blog: RE: TD LINGLING (AGATON) Update #008

Ramon……. Final Update

for Monday, 20 January 2014 [1:30 AM PhT]

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WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LINGLING (AGATON) UPDATE NUMBER 009 [FINAL]
Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Monday 20 January 2014

Tropical Depression (TD) LINGLING [AGATON] has maintained its strength as it remains almost stationary over the South Philippine Sea... likely to weaken into an area of low pressure within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Lingling (Agaton) will continue to enhance the cool surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing mostly cloudy conditions w/ passing drizzles, slight to sometimes moderate rains and gusty winds (not exceeding 70 kph across Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region and some parts of the Visayas and Northern Mindanao through Tuesday.

*This is the last and final update on Agaton.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT...

Location: Over the South Philippine Sea (near 6.4N 128.7E)
About: 285 km southeast of Cateel, Davao Oriental...or 280 km east-southeast of Mati City
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (along its rainbands): Extreme [400 mm]
Size (in diameter): Small (535 km)
Past Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Forecast Movement: North-northwest slowly @ 06 kph
Towards: South Philippine Sea

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD Lingling (Agaton) is expected to remain quasi-stationary and move north-northwest slowly later. On the forecast track, the weakening core of TD Lingling (Agaton) will remain over the South Philippine Sea on Tuesday early morning.

TD Lingling (Agaton) is expected to weaken into an area of low pressure through 12 to 24 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 35 km/hr on Monday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into an area of low pressure...over the South Philippine Sea [2AM JAN 21: 7.5N 128.5E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places with possible or ongoing effects caused by the current tropical cyclone.

CARAGA / NORTHERN MINDANAO / DAVAO REGION: Heavy rains of 50 to 100 mm will be experienced along these areas through Tuesday morning. Residents living along the hazard-prone areas are advised to take precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

NORTHERN SOCCSKSARGEN / NORTHERN ARMM / EASTERN PART OF ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA / CAMIGUIN: Moderate to heavy rains of 30-50 mm will be experienced along these areas through Tuesday morning. Residents living along hazard-prone areas are advised to take precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Jan 20, 2014
Class/Name: TD Lingling (Agaton)
Location of Center: Near 6.4º N Lat 128.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 285 km SE of Cateel, Davao Oriental
Distance 2: 280 km E of Mati City
Distance 3: 330 km SE of Bislig City
Distance 4: 350 km ESE of Metro Davao
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Past Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Forecast Movement: Quasi-Stationary to North-northwest @ 06 kph
Towards: South Philippine Sea
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF

Notes: T2K translates all technical data terms into layman's form for public understanding. Do not use this for life/death decision, kindly refer to your country's official warnings/bulletins. This site is intended for additional information purposes only. Local times are based on Philippine / Hong Kong / Shanghai Standard Times. Maximum Sustained Winds are based on either 1-minute average (JTWC) or 10-minute average. Pressure Estimates by: NRL & RSMC-Tokyo Typhoon Centre (JMA). Max Wave Height by: NPMOC (USA). Live Naga City weather conditions (if available) taken from T2K`s new DAVIS VANTAGE VUE Digital Weather Station.

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