for Sunday, 19 January 2014 [1:30 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM LINGLING (AGATON) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Sunday 19 January 2014
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sunday 19 January 2014
Tropical Storm LINGLING [AGATON] has maintained its southeasterly drift across the South Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours...now threatens Davao Provinces.
Lingling (Agaton) will continue to enhance the cool surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing mostly cloudy conditions w/ passing slight to moderate rains and gusty winds across Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region and some parts of the Visayas and Northern Mindanao through Sunday evening.
Residents and visitors along Northeastern, Northern and Central Mindanao should closely monitor the development of Lingling (Agaton).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 11:00 PM PhT today...1500 GMT...
Location: Over the South Philippine Sea (near 8.3N 128.3E)
About: 210 km east-northeast of Cateel, Davao Oriental...or 220 km east of Bislig City, Surigao City
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): Extreme [350 mm]
Past Movement: Southeast at 05 kph
Forecast Movement: Southwest at 11 kph
Towards: Davao Oriental
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Lingling (Agaton) is expected to move southwest to west-southwest within the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TS Lingling (Agaton) will make landfall along the southern tip of Davao Oriental on Sunday evening (between 8-10 PM)...and traverse Davao Gulf, Davao Del Sur and SOCCSKSARGEN through Sunday evening.
TS Lingling (Agaton) is expected to lose strength into a Tropical Depression (TD) before and during landfall and will weaken further into an area of low pressure through 24 hours due to its passage across the landmass of Southern Mindanao. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 30 km/hr on Sunday afternoon.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens to a Tropical Depression (TD)...Just along the coast of Davao Oriental [8PM JAN 19: 6.8N 126.5E @ 45kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Weakens into an area of low pressure as it turns westward...just off the west coast of Sultan Kudarat [8PM JAN 20: 6.4N 124.0E @ 30kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places with possible or ongoing effects caused by the current tropical cyclone:
CARAGA - Heavy rains of 50 to 100 mm will be experienced along these areas...becoming extreme rains of more than 100 mm along the provinces of Surigao Del Norte, Dinagat and Siargao Islands, Agusan Del Norte, and the northern portions of Surigao Del Sur and Agusan Del Sur through Sunday afternoon. Residents living along the hazard-prone areas are advised to take precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides. EASTERN VISAYAS / CEBU / BOHOL / MISAMIS ORIENTAL / DAVAO / NORTHEASTERN COTABATO / NORTHERN DAVAO DEL SUR / COMPOSTELA VALLEY / NORTHERN DAVAO ORIENTAL - Moderate to heavy rains of 30-50 mm will be experienced along these areas through Sunday afternoon. Residents living along hazard-prone areas are advised to take precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat Jan 18, 2014
Class/Name: TS Lingling (Agaton)
Location of Center: Near 8.3º N Lat 128.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 210 km ENE of Cateel, Davao Oriental
Distance 2: 220 km E of Bislig City
Distance 3: 220 km E of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 4: 285 km NE of Mati City
Distance 5: 325 km ENE of Metro Davao
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Past Movement: SE @ 05 kph
Forecast Movement: SW @ 11 kph
Towards: Southern Caraga-Davao Oriental Area
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS LINGLING (AGATON)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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