Bushman's Typhoon Blog: January 2014

Friday, January 31, 2014

TS KAJIKI (BASYANG) Update #003

for Friday, 31 January 2014 [4:43 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KAJIKI (BASYANG) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Friday 31 January 2014
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Friday 31 January 2014

02W (BASYANG) strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) and is now known internationally as KAJIKI, a japanese word for a spearfish. This storm is now rapidly accelerating towards Northernmost Caraga Region and the Visayas...and is expected to be over Dinagat-Siargao Islands tonight.

Kajiki (Basyang) will enhance the cool surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing mostly cloudy conditions w/ passing drizzles, slight to sometimes moderate rains and gusty winds (not exceeding 65 kph across the eastern sections of Luzon including Bicol Region and some parts of Northern Visayas this weekend.

Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao and the Visayas should closely monitor the development of TS Kajiki (Basyang).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today...0300 GMT...

Location: Over the South Philippine Sea (near 9.7N 128.6E)
About: 275 km east of Siargao Island...or 340 km east of Surigao City
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near its center): 300 mm [Extreme]
Past Movement: West at 48 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-northwest at 35 kph
Towards: Siargao-Dinagat-Southern Leyte Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Kajiki (Basyang) is expected to continue moving west to west-northwest at an accelerated pace within the next 24 hours...slowing down through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TS Kajiki (Basyang) will traverse Dinagat-Siargao Islands tonight...and cross Central Visayas via the Southern Tip of Leyte-Central Cebu-Central Negros until Saturday early morning. By Saturday morning, the storm will move past the southern tip of Panay Island, cruising across the Sulu Sea and will traverse Northern Palawan Saturday evening. It will then be over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday morning.

Kajiki (Basyang) is expected to maintain its strength within the next 12 hours...before weakening into a Tropical Depression through the next 24 hours due to land interaction. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 55 km/hr on Saturday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens to a TD as it moves across the southern tip of Panay...60 km WSW of Iloilo City [8AM FEB 01: 10.5N 122.1E @ 55kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Dissipates into an area of low pressure while moving across the West Philippine Sea...about 350 km W of El Nido, Palawan [8AM FEB 02: 11.3N 116.5E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places with possible or ongoing effects caused by the current tropical cyclone.

NORTHERN CARAGA / EASTERN VISAYAS REGION: Heavy rains of 50 to 100 mm with tropical storm force winds of not more than 75 kph will be experienced along these areas beginning today through Saturday morning . Residents living along the hazard-prone areas are advised to seek shelter and take precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

NORTHERN MINDANAO / REST OF CARAGA / CENTRAL & WESTERN VISAYAS / EASTERN MASBATE / NORTHERN PALAWAN: Moderate to heavy rains of 30-50 mm will be experienced along these areas beginning today through Sunday morning. Residents living along hazard-prone areas are advised to seek shelter and take precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES & TECHNICAL INFO

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Jan 31, 2014
Class/Name: TS Kajiki (Basyang)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Location of Center: Near 9.7º N Lat 128.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 275 km E of Siargao Island
Distance 2: 340 km E of Surigao City
Distance 3: 425 km ESE of Maasin City
Distance 4: 520 km ESE of Metro Cebu
Distance 5: 525 km E of Tagbilaran City
CPA [ETA] to Dinagat and Siargao Islands: Tonight [between 6-8PM PhT]
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS KAJIKI (BASYANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__________________________________________________________________________________________

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TD 02W (BASYANG) Update #002

for Friday, 31 January 2014 [8:29 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (BASYANG) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 31 January 2014
Next Update: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Friday 31 January 2014

Tropical Depression (TD) 02W [BASYANG] has slightly intensified as it rapidly moved westward closer to Caraga and Eastern Visayas Regions. Rainbands expected to spread across these areas beginning today.

02W (Basyang) will enhance the cool surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing mostly cloudy conditions w/ passing drizzles, slight to sometimes moderate rains and gusty winds (not exceeding 55 kph across the eastern sections of Luzon including Bicol Region and some parts of Northern Visayas this weekend.

Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao and the Visayas should closely monitor the development of TD 02W (Basyang).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT...

Location: Over the South Philippine Sea (near 9.5N 131.3E)
About: 570 km east-southeast of Siargao Island...or 635 km east-southeast of Surigao City
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near its center): 250 mm [Extreme]
Past Movement: West at 33 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-northwest at 31 kph
Towards: Surigao Del Norte-Southern Leyte Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

02W (Basyang) is expected to continue moving westward at an accelerated pace through 24 hours...slowing down through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TD 02W (Basyang) will traverse Dinagat-Siargao Islands on Friday evening...cross Central and Western Visayas on Saturday morning...and passing over Northern Palawan on Saturday evening. This system will be over the West Philippine Sea by Sunday morning.

02W (Basyang) is expected to maintain its strength within the next 24 hours...before weakening through 48 hours. There is a possibility that this system could reach minimal Tropical Storm (TS) based on some computer model output. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 45 km/hr on Sunday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it moves across the northern coast of Bohol...65 km ESE of Cebu City [2AM FEB 01: 10.2N 124.5E @ 55kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it enters the West Philippine Sea...about 220 km WSW of El Nido, Palawan [2AM FEB 02: 11.1N 117.7E @ 45kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Dissipates into an area of low pressure while moving across the South China Sea...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 135 km NNE of Pagasa Island, Spratly Islands [2AM FEB 03: 12.2N 114.8E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places with possible or ongoing effects caused by the current tropical cyclone.

NORTHERN CARAGA / EASTERN VISAYAS REGION: Heavy rains of 50 to 100 mm will be experienced along these areas beginning today through Saturday afternoon . Residents living along the hazard-prone areas are advised to take precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

NORTHERN MINDANAO / REST OF CARAGA / CENTRAL & WESTERN VISAYAS / EASTERN MASBATE / NORTHERN PALAWAN: Moderate to heavy rains of 30-50 mm will be experienced along these areas beginning today through Sunday morning. Residents living along hazard-prone areas are advised to take precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES & TECHNICAL INFO

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Jan 31, 2014
Class/Name: TD 02W (Basyang)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Location of Center: Near 9.5º N Lat 131.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 570 km ESE of Siargao Island
Distance 2: 635 km ESE of Surigao City
Distance 3: 730 km ESE of Maasin City
Distance 4: 815 km ESE of Metro Cebu
Distance 5: 820 km E of Tagbilaran City
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 02W (BASYANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TD (BASYANG) Update #001

for Friday, 31 January 2014 [1:43 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (BASYANG) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 9:00 PM PhT (13:00 GMT) Thursday 30 January 2014
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Friday 31 January 2014

The broad and strong Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA) north of Palau has strengthened into a Tropical Depression (TD) locally known as "BASYANG"...now threatens Northeastern Mindanao and the Visayas.

This depression (Basyang) is likely to enhance the cool surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing mostly cloudy conditions w/ passing drizzles, slight to sometimes moderate rains and gusty winds (not exceeding 55 kph across Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region and some parts of Northern Visayas this weekend.

Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao and the Visayas should closely monitor the development of the TD (Basyang).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 8:00 PM PhT today...1200 GMT...

Location: Over the eastern part of the South Philippine Sea (near 9.3N 135.1E)
About: 990 km east-southeast of Siargao Island...or 1,055 km east-southeast of Surigao City
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near its center): 250 mm [Extreme]
Past Movement: West-northwest at 26 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 35 kph
Towards: Northeastern Mindanao-Visayas Area

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

The TD (Basyang) is expected to move west at a faster rate throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TD (Basyang) will traverse Surigao Del Norte-Dinagat-Siargao Islands on Friday evening...cross Central and Western Visayas on Saturday morning...and approach Northern Palawan on Saturday evening.

The TD (Basyang) is expected to slightly intensify within the next 24 hours...before weakening through 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 55 km/hr on Friday evening.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

FRIDAY EVENING: Intensifies slightly as it approaches Surigao Del Norte...125 km ESE of Siargao Island [8PM JAN 31: 9.6N 127.2E @ 55kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Maintains its strength...approaches Northern Palawan...about 70 km SE of El Nido, Palawan [8PM FEB 01: 10.8N 120.1E @ 55kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly as it moves across the West Philippine Sea...about 185 km E of Pagasa Island, Spratly Islands [8PM FEB 02: 11.0N 116.0E @ 45kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places with possible or ongoing effects caused by the current tropical cyclone.

NORTHERN CARAGA / EASTERN VISAYAS REGION: Heavy rains of 50 to 100 mm are likely along these areas beginning early Friday morning through Saturday afternoon . Residents in these areas are advised to be always on alert and closely monitor the weather situation.

NORTHERN MINDANAO / REST OF CARAGA / CENTRAL & WESTERN VISAYAS / EASTERN MASBATE / NORTHERN PALAWAN: Moderate to heavy rains of 30-50 mm are likely along these areas beginning Friday morning through Sunday morning. Residents in these areas are advised to be always on alert and closely monitor the weather situation.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES & TECHNICAL INFO

Time/Date: 8:00 PM PhT Thu Jan 30, 2014
Class/Name: TD (Basyang)
Location of Center: Near 9.3º N Lat 135.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 990 km ESE of Siargao Island
Distance 2: 1055 km ESE of Surigao City
Distance 3: 1145 km ESE of Maasin City
Distance 4: 1240 km ESE of Tagbilaran City
Distance 5: 1235 km ESE of Metro Cebu
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD (BASYANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Monday, January 20, 2014

RE: TD LINGLING (AGATON) Update #008

Ramon……. Final Update

for Monday, 20 January 2014 [1:30 AM PhT]

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WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LINGLING (AGATON) UPDATE NUMBER 009 [FINAL]
Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Monday 20 January 2014

Tropical Depression (TD) LINGLING [AGATON] has maintained its strength as it remains almost stationary over the South Philippine Sea... likely to weaken into an area of low pressure within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Lingling (Agaton) will continue to enhance the cool surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing mostly cloudy conditions w/ passing drizzles, slight to sometimes moderate rains and gusty winds (not exceeding 70 kph across Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region and some parts of the Visayas and Northern Mindanao through Tuesday.

*This is the last and final update on Agaton.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT...

Location: Over the South Philippine Sea (near 6.4N 128.7E)
About: 285 km southeast of Cateel, Davao Oriental...or 280 km east-southeast of Mati City
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (along its rainbands): Extreme [400 mm]
Size (in diameter): Small (535 km)
Past Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Forecast Movement: North-northwest slowly @ 06 kph
Towards: South Philippine Sea

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD Lingling (Agaton) is expected to remain quasi-stationary and move north-northwest slowly later. On the forecast track, the weakening core of TD Lingling (Agaton) will remain over the South Philippine Sea on Tuesday early morning.

TD Lingling (Agaton) is expected to weaken into an area of low pressure through 12 to 24 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 35 km/hr on Monday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into an area of low pressure...over the South Philippine Sea [2AM JAN 21: 7.5N 128.5E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places with possible or ongoing effects caused by the current tropical cyclone.

CARAGA / NORTHERN MINDANAO / DAVAO REGION: Heavy rains of 50 to 100 mm will be experienced along these areas through Tuesday morning. Residents living along the hazard-prone areas are advised to take precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

NORTHERN SOCCSKSARGEN / NORTHERN ARMM / EASTERN PART OF ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA / CAMIGUIN: Moderate to heavy rains of 30-50 mm will be experienced along these areas through Tuesday morning. Residents living along hazard-prone areas are advised to take precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Jan 20, 2014
Class/Name: TD Lingling (Agaton)
Location of Center: Near 6.4º N Lat 128.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 285 km SE of Cateel, Davao Oriental
Distance 2: 280 km E of Mati City
Distance 3: 330 km SE of Bislig City
Distance 4: 350 km ESE of Metro Davao
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Past Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Forecast Movement: Quasi-Stationary to North-northwest @ 06 kph
Towards: South Philippine Sea
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF

Notes: T2K translates all technical data terms into layman's form for public understanding. Do not use this for life/death decision, kindly refer to your country's official warnings/bulletins. This site is intended for additional information purposes only. Local times are based on Philippine / Hong Kong / Shanghai Standard Times. Maximum Sustained Winds are based on either 1-minute average (JTWC) or 10-minute average. Pressure Estimates by: NRL & RSMC-Tokyo Typhoon Centre (JMA). Max Wave Height by: NPMOC (USA). Live Naga City weather conditions (if available) taken from T2K`s new DAVIS VANTAGE VUE Digital Weather Station.

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