Friday, July 18, 2008

Typhoon KALMAEGI (HELEN) now over NW Taiwan... [Update #006]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006
Name: TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI [HELEN/08W/0807] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 18 JULY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #015
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON KALMAEGI (HELEN) HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN LATE
LAST NIGHT AND IS NOW OFF THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND NATION.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KALMAEGI is expected to weaken further as it moves
into Taiwan Strait later this afternoon and shall make another landfall
over SE China, passing very close to Wenzhou City early tomorrow morning.
This system shall weaken gradually into a storm as it tracks northward
to NNE-ward - passing very close to Shanghai tomorrow afternoon or eve-
ning. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system accelerating
NE'ly across the Southern Yellow Sea, making its final landfall over
South Korea late Sunday evening (Jul 20). It shall then become Extra-
tropical upon entering the Sea of Japan by Monday or Tuesday
(Jul 21-22).  

+ EFFECTS: KALMAEGI's main circulation still soaking Taiwan, with its
inner rain bands affecting the whole island nation. Heavy rains of up
400 mm and winds not exceeding 150 km/hr may be expected over Northern
Taiwan. Very rough seas is possible along Taiwan's and SE China's
coastal areas. Meanwhile, Coastal areas of SE China & Batanes Group of
Islands remains under the effects of its outer bands - Rains and winds
not exceeding 50 km/hr can be expected today. Residents in low-lying
areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due
to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precau-
tionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Coastal Storm Surge
flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...along with large
and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north
of Kalmaegi's projected path particularly when the system moves over
Northwestern tip of Taiwan & SE China. Minimal damage is possible on
this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is possible along
coastal areas of SW & Eastern China with surf reaching 1 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITYSouthwest (SW) Monsoon currently enhanced
by TY KALMAEGI (HELEN) prevailing across Northwestern Luzon. Partly
Cloudy to Cloudy skies with possible light to moderate passing rains
w/ at times heavy downpour & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can
be expected. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to
occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying &
flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Strong ITCZ (aka. Monsoon
Trough) affecting rest of Visayas and Mindanao bringing scattered
rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or
evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 18 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 24.6º N...LONGITUDE 121.3º
DISTANCE 1: 55 KM (30
NM) SSW OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN 
DISTANCE 2: 75 KM (40 NM) NNW OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN 
DISTANCE 3: 260 KM (140 NM) SE OF FUZHOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 4: 385 KM (208 NM) SSE OF WENZHOU, CHINA  
DISTANCE 5: 470 KM (255 NM) NNW OF BASCO, BATANES
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHEASTERN CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 590 KM (320 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 23 FEET (7.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME FRI JULY 18
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - NOW LOWERED.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 18 JULY: 26.0N 120.5E / 120-150 KPH / N @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 19 JULY: 27.8N 120.3E / 100-130 KPH / NNE @ 22 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JULY: 32.3N 122.9E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 21 JULY: 36.1N 127.4E / 65-85 KPH / NE @ 26 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 JULY POSITION: 24.7N 121.4E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 08W HAS CONTINUED TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD EXTREME NORTHERN TAIWAN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE STORM HAS INTENSIFIED AN ADDITIONAL
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE IN PART TO FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXTREMELY FAVORABLE CIRRUS OUTFLOW ALOFT.
AN EXPANSIVE AND MATURE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CONTINUES TO OBSCURE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC); HOWEVER, NEARBY RADAR
FIXES FROM TAIWAN HAVE AIDED IN PINPOINTING THE LLCC. THE CYCLONE
HAS YET TO DEVELOP AN EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT A
170533Z 89 GHZ AMSRE MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE
EYE.
..
(more)

>> KALMAEGI {pronounced: kal~meegi}, meaning: Seagull
   
Name contributed by: DPR Korea.

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 18 JULY: 24.8N 121.3E / NNW @ 17 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT JTWC TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY KALMAEGI (HELEN)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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