Wednesday, July 16, 2008

TS KALMAEIGI (HELEN) - Update #004


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI [HELEN/08W/0807] 
Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) WED 16 JULY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #008
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (HELEN) rapidly intensifies as it drifted North-
ward during the past 6 hours. Winds and rains from its western bands
continues to pound Northern Luzon.


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KALMAEGI is expected to move NW-ward within the next
24 hours, & shall pass over or very close to Batanes Group of Islands
tomorrow morning (approx 7-8 AM) and then make landfall over SE Taiwan
tomorrow evening as a Category 1 Typhoon. It shall be off the central
mountains of Taiwan Friday morning as a downgraded Tropical Storm. The
3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system recurving to the NNE
across the East China Sea on Saturday morning, July 19 & shall be over
Cheju Island, South Korea Monday morning, July 21st. *Alternate Forecast
Scenario: There is a possibilty that KALMAEGI may track abruptly North
to NNE-ward and pass to the east of Batanes Group of Islands tomorrow
sparing Taiwan from a direct hit, if the High Pressure Steering Ridge
to its North weakens or retreats.  

+ EFFECTS: KALMAEGI's western & southwestern outer rain bands continues
to spread across Northern Luzon becoming more intense along Cagayan,
Isabela, Babuyan & Calayan Group of Islands & Ilocos Norte. Rains and
winds not exceeding 60 km/hr can be expected along these bands. Rough
seas to prevail along the coastal areas of the affected areas. Residents
in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding &
landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this
system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITYSouthwest (SW) Monsoon currently
enhanced by TS KALMAEGI (HELEN) continues to prevail across Luzon,
Western Visayas, Southern Quezon including Bicol Region, becoming
more intense along Western Luzon including Metro Manila, Batangas
& Mindoro. Partly Cloudy to Cloudy skies with possible light to
moderate passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour & SW'ly winds
not exceeding 50 km/hr can be expected. Landslides, mudflows (la-
hars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano
slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected
areas. Strong ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting rest of Visayas
and Mindanao bringing scattered rains and thunderstorms - most
especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 16 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 18.9º N...LONGITUDE 123.5º
DISTANCE 1: 200 KM (108
NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 235 KM (127 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH 
DISTANCE 3: 240 KM (130 NM) NE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 4: 530 KM (287 NM) SE OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN  
MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES GROUP
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 405 KM (220 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME WED JULY 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - NORTHERN CAGAYAN, CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, APAYAO, BATANES 
      & ILOCOS NORTE.

#01 -
REST OF CAGAYAN, ISABELA, ABRA, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, 
      NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA & ILOCOS SUR
.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 16 JULY: 19.4N 123.0E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 17 JULY: 20.7N 121.8E / 110-140 KPH / N @ 17 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 18 JULY: 24.3N 121.4E / 100-130 KPH / NNE @ 15 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 19 JUNE: 27.3N 122.7E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 16 JULY POSITION: 18.7N 123.6E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A AMSU IMAGE DEPICT
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM
THE SOUTH INTO THE EAST QUADRANT. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED THAT
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE ACCELERATED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. OVERALL, THE MODELS REMAIN
IN POOR AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THEY ALL INDICATE A POLEWARD TRACK EAST
OF TAIWAN
...
(more)

>> KALMAEGI {pronounced: kal~meegi}, meaning: Seagull
   
Name contributed by: DPR Korea.

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
 
> 10 AM (02 GMT) 16 JULY: 18.7N 123.2E / NORTH @ 07 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT JTWC TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS KALMAEGI (HELEN)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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