Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS SAOMAI (08W) passing North of Guam...[Update #02]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #02

Name: TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI [08W/0608]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 06 AUGUST 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SUN 06 AUGUST 2006
Sources: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #005 / NWS
GUAM TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY #005
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TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI (08W) INTENSIFYING...PASSING
NORTH OF GUAM...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING
MARIANAS.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SAOMAI is expected to intensify &
become a Typhoon early tomorrow morning...shall conti-
nue moving NW'ly and enter PAR Tuesday afternoon. The
3 to 5-day long-range forecast (Aug 9-11) shows SAOMI
well within PAR with predicted sustained winds of 160-
km/hr by Thursday (Aug 10). The system shall turn more
to the West and pass in between Okinawa and Taiwan
around Friday evening (Aug 11).

+ EFFECTS: SAOMAI's main core passing directly to the
North of Guam...Inner and outer spiral bands spreading
well across the Marianas. These bands may bring cloudy
skies with moderate to heavy rains and gale-force winds
reaching 70 km/hr or more with decreasing wind speeds
along the outer bands. Residents living along the river
banks, steep mountain slopes and low-lying areas are
advised to stay alert and foresee evacuation in case of
possible flashfloods and mudslides. Hazardous ocean surf
of up to 9 feet to 12 feet today and continue at hazar-
dous levels Monday & Tuesday (Aug 7 & 8). Improving
weather conditions can be expected tonight or tomorrow
as SAOMAI moves farther away.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak Southwest Monsoon
bringing cloudy skies with widespread rains and isolated
thunderstorms across Western Micronesia (Palau, Yap,
Ulithi, etc).

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Another Tropical Storm named
MARIA (09W) has formed way up North of Marianas...now
passing north of Iwo Jima and Bonin Islands...not a
threat to any populated areas. Current position: 26.7N
143.1E or approx 210 km East of Bonin Island...Max sus-
tained winds is at 75 km/hr (JMA estimate)...moving
WNW at 24 km/hr. Forecast to reach Okinawa-Kyushu area
Tuesday evening, Aug 8.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) 06 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER (RADAR): LATITUDE 14.4º N...LONGITUDE 144.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 130 KM (70 NM) NW OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 2: 185 KM (100 NM) WSW OF SAIPAN, CNMI
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (40 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 991 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN-RYUKYU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 630 KM (340 NM)/AVERAGE
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 AM JST SUN AUGUST 06
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 15.5N 143.8E / 100-130 KPH

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 17.4N 142.1E / 120-150 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 20.8N 138.0E / 140-165 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 06 AUGUST POSITION: 13.2N 145.6E.
^THE MAIN BODY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED WHILE LIFTING POLEWARD,
AND SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES ARE POOR GIVEN THE LACK
OF A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE NEAR THE CIRCULA-
TION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS THEREFORE WEIGHTED
TOWARD CONTINUITY BASED ON PREVIOUS STORM MOTION. EARLY
RADAR POSITION ESTIMATES FROM GUAM PLACE THE SYSTEM
CENTER A BIT MORE POLEWARD THAN THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE
FIXES...(more info)

>> SAOMAI {pronounced: sao~mai}, meaning: Name of planet
Venus. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
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RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh...noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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