Bushman's Typhoon Blog: KAEMI (GLENDA) downgraded into a Tropical Storm...[Update #15]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #15

Name: TYPHOON KAEMI [GLENDA/06W/0605]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 25 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 26 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #030
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KAEMI (GLENDA) WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT
APPROACHES FUJIAN PROVINCE...SECOND LANDFALL JUST AN
HOUR AWAY...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BEING EXPE-
RIENCED ACROSS FUJIAN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The storm is expected to make its
2nd landfall over Fujian Province, China in just a few
hours from now. It shall pass very close to Xiamen City
around 6 PM local time. The system is forecast to rapid-
ly dissipate tomorrow as it traverses the mountainous
terrain of Southeastern China Mainland.

+ EFFECTS: The weakening core of KAEMI is just off the
Coast of Fujian, China...Its Inner Bands continues to
affect Taiwan Strait and the Chinese Province of Fujian.
On the other hand, the storm's Outer Bands continues
to spread across the whole of Taiwan, the Batanes &
Calayan Group of Islands and portions of Southeastern
China. Moderate to heavy rains with gale-force winds of
up to 65 km/hr may be expected within the storm's inner
spiral bands with decreasing wind speeds along its outer
bands. Meanwhile, increasing gale-force winds (up to 95
km/hr) with very heavy rains can be expected along the
weakening core (eyewall) of KAEMI. Coastal Storm Surge
flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expec-
ted near and to the north of where the center makes land-
fall in Fujian Province. Stormy weather conditions will
continue across Southeastern China tonight & tomorrow as
KAEMI moves into Fujian Province, China. Improving wea-
ther can be expected over Taiwan beginning tomorrow.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Southwest (SW) Monsoon
continues to affect Luzon & Western Visayas becoming more
intense & rainy along Western Luzon (including Metro Mani-
la, Dagupan City & Subic Bay), Mindoro Island, Lubang Is-
land, Calamian Islands, Panay, Romblon & Boracay Island
Resort. Cloudy weather conditions with light to moderate
to sometimes heavy rainfall & very rough seas can be ex-
pected over the affected areas today. Southwesterly winds
of 30 to 50 km/hr with higher gusts may be expected along
the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 25 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 24.4º N...LONGITUDE 118.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 25 KM (13 NM) SE OF XIAMEN, CHINA
DISTANCE 2: 195 KM (105 NM) ENE OF SHANTOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 3: 285 KM (155 NM) NW OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 4: 575 KM (310 NM) NW OF ABSCO, BATANES, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 987 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 19 FEET (5.7 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: FUJIAN PROVINCE, CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 760 KM (410 NM)/LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM TUE JULY 25
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 24 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS, CALAYAN GROUP OF
      ISLANDS, BABUYAN ISLAND, ILOCOS PROVINCES,
      ABRA, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ZAMBALES &
      BATAAN.

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 26 JULY: 25.2N 117.0E / 75-95 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 26 JULY: 26.7N 115.8E / 55-75 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 25 JULY POSITION: 24.1N 118.7E.
^THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF TAIWAN HAS WEAKENED TY
KAEMI SIGNIFICANTLY. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND LAND EFFECTS WILL INHIBIT STORM INTENSIFICATION.
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE STORM MOVES
ASHORE NEAR XIAMEN, CHINA...(more info)

>> KAEMI {pronounced: gae~mi}, meaning: An ant. A very
   small insect that lives in highly organized groups.
   It often appears in Korean fairy tales as a symbol
   of diligence. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

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EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):

+ Fujian, China: Ongoing until 10PM tonight (Tue).

Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a
Typhoon. It is here where the strongest winds and heaviest rain can be
found. *EPFT will show what local times on a given area the most damaging
winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime
a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate
analysis, do not use this for life or death decisions.

_________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 25 JULY: 24.4N 118.5E / WNW @ 11 KPH / 100 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.......noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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