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Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #15
Name: TYPHOON CHANCHU [CALOY/02W/0601]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 16 MAY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 16 MAY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #029
_______________________________________________________________________
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 16 MAY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #029
_______________________________________________________________________
TYPHOON CHANCHU (CALOY) NOW ON ITS WEAKENING TREND AFTER REACHING
ITS PEAK WINDS OF 250 KM/HR YESTERDAY...DOWNGRADED TO A CATEGORY
THREE TYPHOON...MOVING CLOSER TO HONG KONG.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The core of CHANCHU is expected to continue
tracking Northward and shall make landfall to the East of Hong
Kong in 36 to 40 hours. Its closest approach to the East of Hong
Kong shall be at a distance of 115 km. around 3 PM local time
(07 GMT) tomorrow, May 17. Hong Kong residents are advised to
take precautionary measures and continue monitoring the progress
of this Category 3 typhoon...mapping out disaster preparedness
plans during CHANCHU's approach is necessary to avoid loss of
lives and properties.
+ EFFECTS: CHANCHU's large core (eye + eyewall) remains over the
warm waters of the South China Sea with its outer rainbands still
covering the entire South China Sea and affecting portions of the
Philippines particularly the western portions. An advancing outer
rainbands of CHANCHU is now beginning to affect Hong Kong and
Guangdong Province of China..deteriorating weather conditions is
expected later today as the typhoon approaches. These rainbands
will continue to bring moderate to heavy rainfall with moderate
to strong winds, and could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes over the affected areas. Residents residing along the
coastal beachfront areas of Palawan, Western Luzon & Western
Visayas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible high
waves from the sea. Coastal Storm Surge flooding from 9 to 12
feet can be expected along the path of CHANCHU advising all sea
vessels to remain at port and avoid passing over it.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: This storm is currently enhancing
the Southwest Monsoon bringing moderate to heavy rains along the
Western sections of the Philippines, Sabah, Malaysia including
Singapore, Indonesia & Southern Vietnam. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks,
low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the affected areas.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: A newly developed Low Pressure Area
(aka. Tropical Disturbance) has been spotted organizing over the
Caroline Islands. This cluster of clouds has been located some
1,155 km. SE of Palau Island (3.0º N Lat 144.0º E Lon). T2K is
now observing this system for possible development into a
Tropical Cyclone. Stay tuned.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!
ITS PEAK WINDS OF 250 KM/HR YESTERDAY...DOWNGRADED TO A CATEGORY
THREE TYPHOON...MOVING CLOSER TO HONG KONG.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The core of CHANCHU is expected to continue
tracking Northward and shall make landfall to the East of Hong
Kong in 36 to 40 hours. Its closest approach to the East of Hong
Kong shall be at a distance of 115 km. around 3 PM local time
(07 GMT) tomorrow, May 17. Hong Kong residents are advised to
take precautionary measures and continue monitoring the progress
of this Category 3 typhoon...mapping out disaster preparedness
plans during CHANCHU's approach is necessary to avoid loss of
lives and properties.
+ EFFECTS: CHANCHU's large core (eye + eyewall) remains over the
warm waters of the South China Sea with its outer rainbands still
covering the entire South China Sea and affecting portions of the
Philippines particularly the western portions. An advancing outer
rainbands of CHANCHU is now beginning to affect Hong Kong and
Guangdong Province of China..deteriorating weather conditions is
expected later today as the typhoon approaches. These rainbands
will continue to bring moderate to heavy rainfall with moderate
to strong winds, and could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes over the affected areas. Residents residing along the
coastal beachfront areas of Palawan, Western Luzon & Western
Visayas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible high
waves from the sea. Coastal Storm Surge flooding from 9 to 12
feet can be expected along the path of CHANCHU advising all sea
vessels to remain at port and avoid passing over it.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: This storm is currently enhancing
the Southwest Monsoon bringing moderate to heavy rains along the
Western sections of the Philippines, Sabah, Malaysia including
Singapore, Indonesia & Southern Vietnam. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks,
low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the affected areas.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: A newly developed Low Pressure Area
(aka. Tropical Disturbance) has been spotted organizing over the
Caroline Islands. This cluster of clouds has been located some
1,155 km. SE of Palau Island (3.0º N Lat 144.0º E Lon). T2K is
now observing this system for possible development into a
Tropical Cyclone. Stay tuned.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 16 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.6º N...LONGITUDE 115.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 640 KM (345 NM) SSE OF HONG KONG, CHINA
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 16 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.6º N...LONGITUDE 115.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 640 KM (345 NM) SSE OF HONG KONG, CHINA
DISTANCE 2: 585 KM (316 NM) WEST OF BAGUIO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 775 KM (417 NM) SSW OF SHANTOU, CHINA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 250 KM/HR (135 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 933 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 37 FEET (11.2 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY 3
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: HONG KONG-GUANGDONG AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,110 KM (600 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM TUE MAY 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 250 KM/HR (135 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 933 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 37 FEET (11.2 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY 3
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: HONG KONG-GUANGDONG AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,110 KM (600 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM TUE MAY 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE
09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 16 MAY: 18.0N 115.0E / 195-240 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 MAY: 20.0N 115.0E / 185-230 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 16 MAY POSITION: 16.2N 115.1E.
^ TY CHANCHU HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHWARD AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF TAIWAN. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSI-
TION WILL BEGIN AROUND 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS IM-
PACTED BY A MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CHINA. TY CHANCHU WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO A REDUCTION IN POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW AND AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST USHERS IN AN UNFAVORABLE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COMMENCING
AROUND 48 HOURS AND LANDFALL SHORTLY THEREAFTER WILL
WEAKEN THE STORM SIGNIFICANTLY...(more info)
>> CHANCHU {pronounced: chan~chu}, meaning: Pearl, a smooth,
rounded lustrous deposit formed in the shells of certain
oysters and is often used for jewelry. Many Macau souvenirs
are made of it. Name contributed by: Macau, China
_______________________________________________________________________
09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 16 MAY: 18.0N 115.0E / 195-240 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 MAY: 20.0N 115.0E / 185-230 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 16 MAY POSITION: 16.2N 115.1E.
^ TY CHANCHU HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHWARD AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF TAIWAN. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSI-
TION WILL BEGIN AROUND 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS IM-
PACTED BY A MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CHINA. TY CHANCHU WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO A REDUCTION IN POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW AND AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST USHERS IN AN UNFAVORABLE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COMMENCING
AROUND 48 HOURS AND LANDFALL SHORTLY THEREAFTER WILL
WEAKEN THE STORM SIGNIFICANTLY...(more info)
>> CHANCHU {pronounced: chan~chu}, meaning: Pearl, a smooth,
rounded lustrous deposit formed in the shells of certain
oysters and is often used for jewelry. Many Macau souvenirs
are made of it. Name contributed by: Macau, China
_______________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:
_______________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:
_______________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the
highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more
explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
T2K Mobile: receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more,
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 386 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Powered by: Synermaxx
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on the TY CHANCHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more
explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
T2K Mobile: receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more,
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 386 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Powered by: Synermaxx
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on the TY CHANCHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
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