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Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #18
Name: TYPHOON CHANCHU [CALOY/02W/0601]
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) WED 17 MAY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) THU 18 MAY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #035
_______________________________________________________________________
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) THU 18 MAY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #035
_______________________________________________________________________
TYPHOON CHANCHU (CALOY) EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING ALONG EASTERN GUANGDONG-FUJIAN AREA...NORTHERN EYEWALL
NOW ENTERING THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN GUANGDONG...HOWLING WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS BEING FELT ALONG THE AREA.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The core (eye + eyewall) The Core (eye +
eyewall) of CHANCHU is expected to make landfall along Eastern
Guangdong-Fujian border early tomorrow morning, around 2 to 3 AM
- passing very close to Shantou-Chaoan, China. It shall then
accelerate NE later across the province of Fujian as a weakened
Tropical Storm. Residents of Southern China (especially Hong Kong,
Eastern Guangdong and Fujian Provinces) are advised to take pre-
cautionary measures as the Category 2 typhoon passes by...mapping
out disaster preparedness plans during CHANCHU's approach must be
completed now to avoid loss of lives and properties.
+ EFFECTS: CHANCHU's core is just less than a hundred kilometers
away from the Coast of Eastern Guangdong, with most of its
strongest winds and heaviest rainfall situated along the core's
SE and southern quadrant. Its inner and outer rainbands continues
to affect Southern China particularly Hong Kong, Eastern Guangdong
and Western Fujian. Worsening weather conditions along Southern
China is expected today until early tomorrow as the typhoon makes
its final approach. These rainbands particularly the inner bands
will continue to bring moderate to heavy rainfall with moderate
to strong, damaging winds and could produce flying debris, life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks, low-
lying areas and mountain slopes over the affected areas. Resi-
dents residing along the coastal beachfront areas of Southern
China are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible high
waves from the sea. Coastal Storm Surge flooding from 6 to 8
feet can be expected along the path of CHANCHU advising all
sea vessels to remain at port and avoid passing over it.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: This storm is currently enhancing the
Southwest Monsoon bringing moderate to sometimes heavy rains along
the some sections of the Philippines, Sabah, Malaysia including
Singapore, Indonesia & Southern Vietnam. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks,
low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the affected areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The core (eye + eyewall) The Core (eye +
eyewall) of CHANCHU is expected to make landfall along Eastern
Guangdong-Fujian border early tomorrow morning, around 2 to 3 AM
- passing very close to Shantou-Chaoan, China. It shall then
accelerate NE later across the province of Fujian as a weakened
Tropical Storm. Residents of Southern China (especially Hong Kong,
Eastern Guangdong and Fujian Provinces) are advised to take pre-
cautionary measures as the Category 2 typhoon passes by...mapping
out disaster preparedness plans during CHANCHU's approach must be
completed now to avoid loss of lives and properties.
+ EFFECTS: CHANCHU's core is just less than a hundred kilometers
away from the Coast of Eastern Guangdong, with most of its
strongest winds and heaviest rainfall situated along the core's
SE and southern quadrant. Its inner and outer rainbands continues
to affect Southern China particularly Hong Kong, Eastern Guangdong
and Western Fujian. Worsening weather conditions along Southern
China is expected today until early tomorrow as the typhoon makes
its final approach. These rainbands particularly the inner bands
will continue to bring moderate to heavy rainfall with moderate
to strong, damaging winds and could produce flying debris, life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks, low-
lying areas and mountain slopes over the affected areas. Resi-
dents residing along the coastal beachfront areas of Southern
China are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible high
waves from the sea. Coastal Storm Surge flooding from 6 to 8
feet can be expected along the path of CHANCHU advising all
sea vessels to remain at port and avoid passing over it.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: This storm is currently enhancing the
Southwest Monsoon bringing moderate to sometimes heavy rains along
the some sections of the Philippines, Sabah, Malaysia including
Singapore, Indonesia & Southern Vietnam. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks,
low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the affected areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 17 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 21.8º N...LONGITUDE 116.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 215 KM (115 NM) ESE OF HONG KONG, CHINA
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 17 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 21.8º N...LONGITUDE 116.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 215 KM (115 NM) ESE OF HONG KONG, CHINA
DISTANCE 2: 185 KM (100 NM) SSW OF SHANTOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 3: 430 KM (232 NM) WSW OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 175 KM/HR (95 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 949 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 32 FEET (9.7 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY 2
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EASTERN GUANGDONG-FUJIAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,000 KM (540 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM WED MAY 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 949 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 32 FEET (9.7 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY 2
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: EASTERN GUANGDONG-FUJIAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,000 KM (540 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM WED MAY 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE
09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 23.3N 116.8E / 150-185 KPH [LANDFALL]
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 18 MAY: 25.7N 118.1E / 120-150 KPH [OVER FUJIAN]
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 21.3N 116.0E.
^ RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EROSION
OF CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN STORM QUADRANTS. TY CHANCHU
CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STEERING RIDGE CENTERED
EAST OF TAIWAN. HOWEVER, THE MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH UPSTREAM OF TY CHANCHU IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE AND INITIATE A CURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
BEYOND THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 12 HOURS AND COMPLETE THE
TRANSITION 36 HOURS. THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION WILL
EXIT CHINA JUST SOUTH OF SHANGHAI AT 48 HOURS...(more info)
>> CHANCHU {pronounced: chan~chu}, meaning: Pearl, a smooth,
rounded lustrous deposit formed in the shells of certain
oysters and is often used for jewelry. Many Macau souvenirs
are made of it. Name contributed by: Macau, China
_______________________________________________________________________
09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 23.3N 116.8E / 150-185 KPH [LANDFALL]
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 18 MAY: 25.7N 118.1E / 120-150 KPH [OVER FUJIAN]
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 21.3N 116.0E.
^ RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EROSION
OF CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN STORM QUADRANTS. TY CHANCHU
CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STEERING RIDGE CENTERED
EAST OF TAIWAN. HOWEVER, THE MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH UPSTREAM OF TY CHANCHU IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE AND INITIATE A CURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
BEYOND THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 12 HOURS AND COMPLETE THE
TRANSITION 36 HOURS. THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION WILL
EXIT CHINA JUST SOUTH OF SHANGHAI AT 48 HOURS...(more info)
>> CHANCHU {pronounced: chan~chu}, meaning: Pearl, a smooth,
rounded lustrous deposit formed in the shells of certain
oysters and is often used for jewelry. Many Macau souvenirs
are made of it. Name contributed by: Macau, China
_______________________________________________________________________
EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):
Eastern Guangdong-Fujian Area: 5PM Fri-6AM Thu.
Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where
the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times
on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT
changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate
analysis, do not use this for life/death decisions.
Eastern Guangdong-Fujian Area: 5PM Fri-6AM Thu.
Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where
the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times
on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT
changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate
analysis, do not use this for life/death decisions.
_________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:
_______________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:
_______________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the
highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more
explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
T2K Mobile: receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more,
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 386 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Powered by: Synermaxx
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on the TY CHANCHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more
explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
T2K Mobile: receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more,
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 386 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Powered by: Synermaxx
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on the TY CHANCHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
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