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Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #11
Name: TYPHOON CHANCHU [CALOY/02W/0601]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 14 MAY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SUN 14 MAY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #021
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Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SUN 14 MAY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #021
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TYPHOON CHANCHU (CALOY) CRUISING ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS IT
PICKS UP STRENGTH...APPROACHING CATEGORY TWO STATUS...WESTERN LUZON
AND PALAWAN STILL AFFECTED BY ITS EASTERN OUTER RAINBANDS.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The core of CHANCHU is expected to continue
moving West to WNW across the South China Sea within 24 hours,
before taking a sharp NNW to Northward track. The 3 to 4-day
Advance Forecast shows the typhoon reaching 220-kph howler before
striking Hong Kong, China around midnight of May 17.
+ EFFECTS: CHANCHU's core (eyewall/inner rainbands) is now over
the South China Sea with its outer rainbands covering almost the
entire South China Sea and affecting the Island of Palawan. These
rainbands will continue to bring moderate to heavy rainfall with
moderate to strong winds, and could produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas and moun-
tain slopes over the affected areas. Residents residing along the
coastal beachfront areas of Palawan, Western Luzon & Western Visa-
yas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible high waves
from the sea. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of up to 3 to 5 feet
can be expected along the path of CHANCHU advising all sea vessels
to remain at port.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: This storm is currently enhancing the
Southwest Monsoon bringing moderate to heavy rains along Western
sections of Visayas and Mindanao. These rains may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks, low-
lying areas and mountain slopes of the affected areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!
PICKS UP STRENGTH...APPROACHING CATEGORY TWO STATUS...WESTERN LUZON
AND PALAWAN STILL AFFECTED BY ITS EASTERN OUTER RAINBANDS.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The core of CHANCHU is expected to continue
moving West to WNW across the South China Sea within 24 hours,
before taking a sharp NNW to Northward track. The 3 to 4-day
Advance Forecast shows the typhoon reaching 220-kph howler before
striking Hong Kong, China around midnight of May 17.
+ EFFECTS: CHANCHU's core (eyewall/inner rainbands) is now over
the South China Sea with its outer rainbands covering almost the
entire South China Sea and affecting the Island of Palawan. These
rainbands will continue to bring moderate to heavy rainfall with
moderate to strong winds, and could produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas and moun-
tain slopes over the affected areas. Residents residing along the
coastal beachfront areas of Palawan, Western Luzon & Western Visa-
yas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible high waves
from the sea. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of up to 3 to 5 feet
can be expected along the path of CHANCHU advising all sea vessels
to remain at port.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: This storm is currently enhancing the
Southwest Monsoon bringing moderate to heavy rains along Western
sections of Visayas and Mindanao. These rains may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks, low-
lying areas and mountain slopes of the affected areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 14 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.0º N...LONGITUDE 117.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 340 KM (185 NM) WSW OF METRO MANILA, PH
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 14 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.0º N...LONGITUDE 117.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 340 KM (185 NM) WSW OF METRO MANILA, PH
DISTANCE 2: 275 KM (150 NM) WSW OF SUBIC BAY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,000 KM (540 NM) WNW OF LUBANG ISLAND, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 185 KM/HR (100 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 963 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 33 FEET (10.0 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY 1
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,165 KM (630 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM SUN MAY 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 185 KM/HR (100 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 963 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 33 FEET (10.0 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY 1
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,165 KM (630 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM SUN MAY 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - METRO MANILA, MINDORO PROVINCES, LUBANG ISLAND, BATANGAS,
CAVITE, BATAAN, ZAMBALES AND CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.
09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 14 MAY: 14.1N 116.8E / 165-205 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 MAY: 14.3N 115.5E / 185-230 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 MAY POSITION: 13.9N 118.3E.
^ UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AND CLOUD TRACK WINDS INDICATE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA
IS BEGINNING TO SPLIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CHINA. A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE WEST OF THE STORM BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER
IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GANGES
RIVER DELTA REGION. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD TO THE
EAST OF TY 02W AND STEER THE STORM TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TY CHANCHU IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE VICINITY OF HONG KONG NEAR 96 HOURS AND DISSIPATE
RAPIDLY OVER LAND. THE EUROPEAN MODELS (EGRR AND ECMWF) ARE
DEPICTING AN ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO IN WHICH A STRONGER
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSES TY 02W TO RECURVE BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AND TRACK FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE TAIWAN
STRAIT.. (more info)
>> CHANCHU {pronounced: chan~chu}, meaning: Pearl, a smooth,
rounded lustrous deposit formed in the shells of certain
oysters and is often used for jewelry. Many Macau souvenirs
are made of it. Name contributed by: Macau, China
_______________________________________________________________________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 14 MAY: 14.1N 118.1E / WNW @ 11 KPH / 110 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_________________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:
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NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:
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NOTES:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the
highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more
explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
T2K Mobile: receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more,
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 386 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Powered by: Synermaxx
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on the TY CHANCHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more
explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
T2K Mobile: receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more,
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 386 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Powered by: Synermaxx
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on the TY CHANCHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
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